Carbon emissions projected to 2050 in three scenarios: Accelerated, Net Zero, and New Momentum. BP’s Energy Outlook 2022 uses three main scenarios (Accelerated, Net Zero, and New Momentum) to explore the range of possible pathways for the global energy system to 2050 and help shape a resilient strategy for BP. Graphic: BP

BP Energy Outlook 2022 edition – The carbon budget is finite, and it is running out

By Spencer Dale 14 March 2022 (BP) – At the time of writing, the world’s attention is focussed on the terrible events taking place in Ukraine. Our thoughts and hopes are with all those affected. The scenarios included in Energy Outlook 2022 were largely prepared before the outbreak of the military action and do not include any […]

Projected U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by fuel source in the AEO2022 reference case (left) and U.S. Energy-related CO2 emissions by AEO2022 economic growth cases (right). Energy‐related CO2 emissions dip through 2035 before climbing in later projection years. Graphic: EIA

U.S. energy projections to 2050: Fossil fuels still most-consumed energy sources through 2050 – Energy consumption increases as population and economic growth outweigh efficiency gains – Energy‐related CO2 emissions dip through 2035 but climb later

3 March 2022 (EIA) – Key takeaways from the Reference case and side cases: Petroleum and natural gas remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the United States through 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing Motor gasoline remains the most prevalent transportation fuel despite electric vehicles gaining market share Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) […]

A man stands on the roof of a house in Colonia El Carmen as a red glare emanates from flares dotted around the Cactus gas processing center, run by state oil company Pemex, in Reforma municipality in Chiapas, Mexico. Photo: Edgard Garrido / REUTERS

Gas flaring soars in Mexico, derailing its climate change pledges as it seeks to boost oil output – “It’s like hell”

By Stefanie Eschenbacher 23 February 2022 (Reuters) – It never gets completely dark in Colonia El Carmen, home to Mexico’s largest natural gas processing center, in the poor southern state of Chiapas. After sunset, a red glare emanates from flares dotted around the Cactus gas processing center, run by state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex). […]

Newcastle Coal Futures, 5 December 2008 - 23 December 2021. In December 2021, Newcastle Coal Futures rose to $169 per metric ton, the highest price since the $222 peak on 29 October 2021, pressured by a surge in China’s thermal coal futures as supply is expected to tighten. In 2021, the Chinese government has intensified a crackdown on illegal mining in the country's top coal producing region Shanxi after a round of inspections at the region's miners and found at least 14 coal mines producing beyond their authorized capacity. Meanwhile, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner, released a plan to raise annual thermal coal prices for 2022 to CNY 700 per ton from 2017's CNY 535 per ton, well above an informal ceiling of CNY 600. Earlier in 2021, China introduced power curbs especially for energy-intensive businesses and restrictions on coal imports, aiming to reach its climate targets but such curbs led to a serious power crunch. Graphic: Trading Economics

“Prepare for lack of electricity” in 2022 says Foxconn founder

By Elles Houweling 20 December 2021 (Verdict) – The founder and director of Foxconn, the world’s largest contract manufacturer of electronics, Terry Gou, has said that “there will be a shortage of electricity in the next year.” Gou added that “people should not complain about the future lack of electricity.” Instead, they should “prepare”. Hon Hai Precision […]

Globally averaged atmospheric CO2 mole fraction (left) and growth rate (right), 1984-2020. In 2020, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas, reached 413.2 parts per million in 2020 and is 149 percent of the pre-industrial level. Graphic: WMO

WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2021: Another year, another record – “CO2 in the atmosphere breached the milestone of 400 parts per million in 2015. And just five years later, it exceeded 413 ppm.”

GENEVA, 25 October 2021 (WMO) – The abundance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere once again reached a new record last year, with the annual rate of increase above the 2011-2020 average. That trend has continued in 2021, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most […]

Map showing the near-surface air temperature differences from the 1981-2010 average for January to September 2021. Data are from the ERA5 reanalysis product. Graphic: C3S / ECMWF

State of the Climate in 2021: Past seven years are on track to be the seven warmest on record – “Extreme events are the new norm”

GENEVA, 31 October 2021 (WMO) – Record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated accumulated heat have propelled the planet into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for current and future generations, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The past seven years are on track to be the seven warmest on record, according to the provisional WMO […]

Satellite view showing plumes of potent greenhouse gas methane leaking from a gas pipeline in Kazakhstan, captured by the European Sentinel 2 and Sentinel 5P satellites. Photo: Copernicus

Satellites discover huge, undeclared methane emissions – “These are large emissions, and we see a lot of them on the global scale, much more than we had expected”

By Tereza Pultarova 16 November 2021 (Space.com) – Huge amounts of uncounted emissions of highly warming greenhouse gas methane are being released by “super-emitters” all over the world, satellite observations reveal. Scientists have only recently worked out how to detect methane emissions from space, but what they have seen since has taken them by surprise. […]

Time series of climate-related responses to anthropogenic drivers, 1990-2020. Out of the 31 tracked planetary vital signs, 18 were at new all-time record lows or highs in 2020. Data obtained before and after the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020) are shown in gray and red respectively. For variables with relatively high variability, local regression trend lines are shown in black. The variables were measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in the supplemental material. Graphic: Ripple, et al., 2021 / BioScience

World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency 2021 – Humans face untold suffering from “the consequences of unrelenting business as usual”

28 July 2021 (BioScience) – In 2019, Ripple and colleagues (2020) warned of untold suffering and declared a climate emergency together with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries. They presented graphs of planetary vital signs indicating very troubling trends, along with little progress by humanity to address climate change. On the basis of […]

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions under current policy with energy market and economic uncertainty, 2005-2021 and projected to 2030. Under current trends, the U.S. will miss both of its Paris Agreement reduction targets in 2025 and 2030. Graphic: Rhodium Group

Taking Stock 2021: U.S. will miss Paris Agreement emissions reduction targets – Cheap natural gas threatens renewable energy transition

By Hannah Pitt, Kate Larsen, Hannah Kolus, Ben King, Alfredo Rivera, Emily Wimberger, Whitney Herndon, John Larsen, and Galen Hiltbrand 15 July 2021 (Rhodium Group) – For the past seven years, Rhodium Group has provided an independent annual outlook for US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under current federal and state policy. This current policy baseline […]

Total greenhouse gas emissions from China and OECD nations, 1990-2019. In 2019, China’s GHG emissions passed the 14 gigaton threshold for the first time, reaching 14,093 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMt CO2e). This represents a more than tripling of 1990 levels, and a 25 percent increase over the past decade. As a result, China’s share of the 2019 global emissions total of 52 gigatons rose to 27 percent. Data: Rhodium Group / UNFCCC. Graphic: Rhodium Group

China’s greenhouse gas emissions exceeded the developed world for the first time in 2019

By Kate Larsen, Hannah Pitt, Mikhail Grant, and Trevor Houser 6 May 2021 (Rhodium Group) – Each year Rhodium Group provides the most up-to-date global and country-level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates through the ClimateDeck (a partnership with Breakthrough Energy). In addition to our preliminary US and China GHG estimates for 2020, Rhodium provides annual estimates of economy-wide emissions—including all […]

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