Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under different scenarios, 2015-2035, and the emissions gap in 2035 with respect to the below 2°C and lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenarios. Limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot is no longer possible. The gap in 2035 between full implementation of the conditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and the lowest 1.5°C overshoot scenario is 16 GtCO2e; the gap to the below 2°C scenario is 6 GtCO2e. The hatched grey band is the 1.5°C scenario of the Emissions Gap Report 2025, which assumed reductions starting in 2020; the gap to it from conditional NDCs would have been 25 GtCO2e. Graphic: UNEP

UN Emissions Gap Report: exceedance of 1.5°C is now “imminent and unavoidable” – Emissions hit 58.4 GtCO2e in 2025; current policies lead to 2.8°C by 2100 – “The opportunity to bridge the 1.5°C emissions gap with ‘no or limited’ overshoot has been lost”

21 October 2026 (UNEP) – The headline finding of this seventeenth Emissions Gap Report is sobering. The opportunity to bridge the 1.5°C emissions gap with ‘no or limited’ overshoot has been lost. Decades of insufficient mitigation action means that larger exceedance of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels based on multidecadal averages is now imminent and unavoidable. […]

Map showing the results of the disastrous U.S. presidential election, 7 November 2024. Graphic: Reuters

Desdemona going dark

7 November 2024 (Desdemona Despair) – My work here is done. After more than 13,000 posts warning of the end of the Phanerozoic eon and the imminent extinction of the human species, I’m calling it quits. The first Desdemona blog post was on 14 November 2008 and was titled, Rising CO2 accelerates coral bleaching: study. […]

Map showing tornado tracks during Hurricane Milton on 9 October 2024. The Miami office of the National Weather Service confirmed at least 5 tornadoes during Hurricane Milton’s approach. Graphic: NWS

Hurricane Milton’s terrible twisters: Outbreak in Florida killed at least 5, leveled buildings – Miami National Weather Service issued a record 55 tornado warnings, beating a previous record of 49 during Category 4 Hurricane Ian in 2022

By Alex Harris 10 October 2024 (Miami Herald) – A deadly and unprecedented wave of tornadoes swirled across Florida ahead of the arrival of Category 3 Hurricane Milton, which crossed the state from Sarasota to the Space Coast Wednesday evening. A series of twisters that struck St. Lucie County left at least five dead and, […]

Jesus Hernandez guides his granddaughter Angelina via a container through a street flooded in the passing of Hurricane Helene, in Batabano, Mayabeque province, Cuba, on Thursday, 26 September 2024. Photo: Ramon Espinosa / AP Photo

Our dystopian climate isn’t just about fires and floods. It’s about society fracturing.

By Bill McKibben 9 October 2024 (The Guardian) – Even as the good people of Florida’s west coast pulled the soggy mattresses from Helene out to the curb, Milton appeared on the horizon this week – a double blast of destruction from the Gulf of Mexico that’s a reminder that physics takes no time off, not even in the […]

Ocean Climate Shift Index (CSI) along the track of Helene, as it developed from disturbance to tropical storm to hurricane to major hurricane. Ocean CSI in surrounding regions are drawn from 24 September 2024, when the storm developed from a potential tropical cyclone to a tropical storm, coinciding with the highest Ocean CSI (in excess of 500) measured along its track. Graphic: Climate Central

Hurricane Helene was supercharged by ultra-warm water made up to 500 times more likely by global warming, study finds – “The heat that human activities are adding to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes”

By Rachel Ramirez 9 October 2024 (CNN) – The exceptionally warm water of the Gulf of Mexico that supercharged deadly Helene last month was made up to 500 times more likely by human-caused climate change, which also ramped up the hurricane’s wind and rain, according to a new scientific analysis. Helene, which made landfall in Florida as […]

A resident helps free a stranded car as Hurricane Helene strikes Boone, North Carolina. Photo: Jonathan Drake / Reuters

I wasn’t prepared to be a climate refugee – A climate advocate learns firsthand the price of climate change in our lives and calls for voters to head off future disasters – “My daughter is still having nightmares”

By Melissa Hanson 4 October 2024 (Scientific American) – I wasn’t prepared to be a climate refugee. Not after relocating my family from drought and wildfire-prone California to the “climate haven” of Asheville, N.C. But less than two months after we moved into our delightfully wooded, mild-weather community, we were forced to leave. Even before […]

Satellite footage taken by NOAA’s GOES-East satellite on 8 October 2024 shows Hurricane Milton intensifying as it travels east toward Florida. Photo: NOAA

Hurricane Milton’s extreme rapid intensification is part of a climate-fueled trend – Among Category 4 and larger hurricanes since 2022, Milton reached Category 4 status the fastest – “This is nothing short of astronomical”

By Denise Chow 7 October 2024 (NBC News) – Hurricane Milton’s last 36 hours have been nothing short of astonishing, as it strengthened from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just over a day. The storm’s blisteringly fast evolution is part of a trend of rapidly intensifying storms fueled by climate change. The term “rapid intensification” […]

Wrecked homes are seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, Wednesday, 2 October 2024, in Chimney Rock Village, N.C. Photo: Mike Stewart / AP Photo

Homeowners hit by Hurricane Helene face the grim task of rebuilding without flood insurance – “There will absolutely be people who will be financially devasted by this event”

By Sally Ho 5 October 2024 (AP) – A week after Hurricane Helene overwhelmed the Southeastern U.S., homeowners hit the hardest are grappling with how they could possibly pay for the flood damage from one of the deadliest storms to hit the mainland in recent history. The Category 4 storm that first struck Florida’s Gulf […]

A rescue team paddles down the Swannanoa River after the remnants of Hurricane Helene caused widespread flooding, downed trees, and power outages in western North Carolina, 29 September 2024. Photo: Travis Long / The News and Observer / Reuters

Asheville tragedy shows there are no climate change safe havens – North Carolina city once viewed as a safe haven for climate refugees – “Climate change is a pervasive issue that is going to affect communities all over the world – not equally – but definitely it will impact everyone, everywhere in some way”

By Kiara Alfonseca 30 September 2024 (ABC News) – Asheville, North Carolina, has been called a potential safe haven for climate refugees by real estate researchers, praised for its temperate mountain weather, distance far from the coast, experiencing less extreme heat and fewer wildfires. The city of around 95,000 people was believed markings of a place where those escaping […]

Nikki Wicker, co-owner of Roy's Restaurant, cleans after Hurricane Helene made landfall overnight, in Steinhatchee, Florida, 27 September 2024. Photo: Octavio Jones / REUTERS

Project 2025 proposes eliminating aid for families and businesses rebuilding after storms – Far-right road map would end vital disaster loan program

8 August 2024 (Center for American Progress) – In the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Debby, the Southeast is tasked with the difficult work of rebuilding homes, businesses, and lives. Initial reports indicate at least six people have died from the storm. Federal agencies play a critical role in providing swift and efficient support to these families and […]

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