U.S. greenhouse gas emissions under current policy with energy market and economic uncertainty, 2005-2021 and projected to 2030. Under current trends, the U.S. will miss both of its Paris Agreement reduction targets in 2025 and 2030. Graphic: Rhodium Group

Taking Stock 2021: U.S. will miss Paris Agreement emissions reduction targets – Cheap natural gas threatens renewable energy transition

By Hannah Pitt, Kate Larsen, Hannah Kolus, Ben King, Alfredo Rivera, Emily Wimberger, Whitney Herndon, John Larsen, and Galen Hiltbrand 15 July 2021 (Rhodium Group) – For the past seven years, Rhodium Group has provided an independent annual outlook for US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under current federal and state policy. This current policy baseline […]

Total greenhouse gas emissions from China and OECD nations, 1990-2019. In 2019, China’s GHG emissions passed the 14 gigaton threshold for the first time, reaching 14,093 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMt CO2e). This represents a more than tripling of 1990 levels, and a 25 percent increase over the past decade. As a result, China’s share of the 2019 global emissions total of 52 gigatons rose to 27 percent. Data: Rhodium Group / UNFCCC. Graphic: Rhodium Group

China’s greenhouse gas emissions exceeded the developed world for the first time in 2019

By Kate Larsen, Hannah Pitt, Mikhail Grant, and Trevor Houser 6 May 2021 (Rhodium Group) – Each year Rhodium Group provides the most up-to-date global and country-level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates through the ClimateDeck (a partnership with Breakthrough Energy). In addition to our preliminary US and China GHG estimates for 2020, Rhodium provides annual estimates of economy-wide emissions—including all […]

Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), 1750-2020. For 2020, the AGGI was a record high 1.47, representing an increase in total direct radiative forcing of 47 percent since 1990. This increase in CO2 is accelerating — while it averaged about 1.6 ppm per year in the 1980s and 1.5 ppm per year in the 1990s, the growth rate increased to 2.4 ppm per year during the last decade (2009-2020). Pre-1978 changes in the CO2-equivalent abundance and AGGI based on the ongoing measurements of all greenhouse gases reported here, measurements of CO2 going back to the 1950s from C.D. Keeling [Keeling et al., 1958], and atmospheric changes derived from air trapped in ice and snow above glaciers [Machida et al., 1995, Battle et al., 1996, Etheridge, et al., 1996; Butler, et al., 1999]. Equivalent CO2 atmospheric amounts (in ppm) are derived with the relationship between CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing from all long-lived greenhouse gases. Graphic: Butler and Montzka, 2021 / NOAA

Another record high for NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index in 2020 – CO2 increase continues accelerating – No slowdown from Covid pandemic seen

26 May 2021 (NOAA) – […] The atmospheric abundance of CO2 has increased by an average of 1.85 ppm per year over the past 41 years (1979-2020). This increase in CO2 is accelerating — while it averaged about 1.6 ppm per year in the 1980s and 1.5 ppm per year in the 1990s, the growth rate increased to […]

Global monthly mean atmospheric CO2, 1980-2020. These graphs shows the mean global atmospheric burden of carbon dioxide as analyzed from measurements collected by the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. Graphic: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

Despite pandemic shutdowns, carbon dioxide and methane surged in 2020 – Carbon dioxide levels now higher than any time in past 3.6 million years – Largest annual methane increase ever recorded

7 April 2021 (NOAA) – Levels of the two most important anthropogenic greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, continued their unrelenting rise in 2020 despite the economic slowdown caused by the coronavirus pandemic response, NOAA announced today. The global surface average for carbon dioxide (CO2), calculated from measurements collected at NOAA’s remote sampling locations, was […]

Snow covers an oil field as pump jacks operate in the Permian Basin in Midland, Texas, U.S, on Saturday, 13 February 2021. Photo: Matthew Busch / Bloomberg / Getty Images

Texas freeze led to release of tons of air pollutants as refineries shut – “These emissions can dwarf the usual emissions of the refineries by orders of magnitude”

By Laura Sanicola and Erwin Seba 21 February 2021 NEW YORK/HOUSTON (Reuters) – The largest U.S. oil refiners released tons of air pollutants into the skies over Texas this past week, according to figures provided to the state, as refineries and petrochemical plants in the region scrambled to shut production during frigid weather. An arctic […]

Average daily CO2 emissions from 5 February to 6 May 2020 (red area) and average of the previous years during the same period (grey area) for three European cities. The dark grey horizontal bars cover periods of official lockdown, while the light grey bars indicate periods of partial lockdown or general restrictions (for example, school closures, reductions in personal contact, mobility constraints). Data: Integrated Carbon Observation System, 2020. Graphic: WMO

Carbon dioxide levels continue at record levels, despite COVID-19 lockdown – “The COVID-19 pandemic is not a solution for climate change”

GENEVA, 23 November 2020 (WMO) – The industrial slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic has not curbed record levels of greenhouse gases which are trapping heat in the atmosphere, increasing temperatures, and driving more extreme weather, ice melt, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The lockdown has cut emissions […]

Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), 1750-2019. For 2019, the AGGI was a record high 1.45, representing an increase in total direct radiative forcing of 45% since 1990. The increase in radiative forcing from CO2 alone since 1990 was 60.6%. Pre-1978 changes in the CO2-equivalent abundance and AGGI are based on the ongoing measurements of all greenhouse gases reported here, measurements of CO2 going back to the 1950s from C.D. Keeling (Keeling et al., 1958), and atmospheric changes derived from air trapped in ice and snow above glaciers (Machida et al., 1995, Battle et al., 1996, Etheridge, et al., 1996; Butler, et al., 1999). Equivalent CO2 atmospheric amounts (in ppm) are derived with the relationship between CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing from all long-lived greenhouse gases. Graphic: Butler and Montzka, 2020 / NOAA

NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index reached another record high in 2019 – Total direct radiative forcing has increased 45 percent since 1990

14 May 2020 (NOAA) – […] The NOAA monitoring program provides high-precision measurements of the global abundance and distribution of long-lived greenhouse gases that are used to calculate changes in radiative climate forcing. Air samples are collected through the NOAA/GML global air sampling network, including a cooperative program for the carbon gases which provides samples […]

University of Rochester researchers in Greenland drill for ice cores, which contain air bubbles with small quantities of ancient air trapped inside. By measuring the carbon-14 isotope in air from more than 200 years ago, the researchers found that scientists have been vastly overestimating the amount of fossil methane emitted by natural sources, and have therefore been underestimating the amount of methane humans are emitting into the atmosphere via fossil fuels. Photo: Xavier Faïn / University of Grenoble Alpes

Methane emitted via human fossil fuel use “vastly underestimated”

By Lindsey Valich 19 February 2020 (University of Rochester) – Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and large contributor to global warming. Methane emissions to the atmosphere have increased by approximately 150 percent over the past three centuries, but it has been difficult for researchers to determine exactly where these emissions originate; heat-trapping gases like […]

Aerial view of a sinkhole caused by rapid permafrost thawing. Abrupt thawing is “fast and dramatic” and it “affects landscapes in unprecedented ways” says Dr. Merritt Turetsky. Photo: Dr. Merritt Turetsky

“Fast and dramatic” permafrost thaw will double previous estimates of potential carbon emissions – “Forests can become lakes in the course of a month”

By Natacha Larnaud 4 February 2020 (CBS News) – Rapidly thawing permafrost in the Arctic has scientists worried. According to a new study published Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience, the ice that holds the soil together is melting, causing hillsides to collapse and massive sinkholes to open up as a result. And that dramatic disruption to […]

Hansen, et al. (1988) projections compared with observations on a temperature vs. time basis (top) and temperature vs. external forcing (bottom). Graphic: Hausfather, et al., 2019 / Geophysical Research Letters

Early climate modelers got global warming right, new report finds – “The warming we have experienced is pretty much exactly what climate models predicted it would be as much as 30 years ago”

By Robert Sanders 4 December 2019 (Berkeley News) – Climate skeptics have long raised doubts about the accuracy of computer models that predict global warming, but it turns out that most of the early climate models were spot-on, according to a look-back by climate scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, Massachusetts Institute of Technology […]

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