World at risk of passing multiple climate tipping points above 1.5°C global warming

The location of climate tipping elements in the cryosphere (blue), biosphere (green) and ocean/atmosphere (orange), and global warming levels their tipping points will likely be triggered at 1.5°C. Researchers see signs of destabilisation already in parts of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, in permafrost regions, the Amazon rainforest, and potentially the Atlantic overturning circulation as well. Graphic: Earth Commission / Globaïa

September 25, 2022

World at risk of passing multiple climate tipping points above 1.5°C global warming

8 September 2022 (Stockholm Resilience Centre) – Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks […]

The conservation status of the world’s 58,497 tree species in 2022. Graphic: BGCI

September 17, 2022

At least one-third of Earth’s trees face extinction – Scientists issue “warning to humanity” that tree species extinction could bring economic as well as ecosystem crisis

LONDON, 1 September 2022 (BGCI) – Today a new paper by leading scientists and the Botanic Gardens Conservation International (BGCI) reveals the severe impact that tree species extinction will have on other species, ecosystems and livelihoods. This comes exactly one year on from the landmark State of the World’s Trees report, which examined global tree species and found that a […]

Changes in global average sea level (background map) and local sea level (dots) between 1993 and 2021. In the global ocean, sea level has risen nearly everywhere (blue). Coastal areas where sea level has fallen (brown) are places where the land is rising as it rebounds from being compressed by ice sheets and glaciers during the last ice age. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from University of Hawaii Sea Level Center. Graphic: NOAA

September 4, 2022

American Meteorological Society report: Record-high greenhouse gases and sea levels in 2021 – Ocean heat content highest on record

31 August 2022 (NOAA) – Greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2021, according to the 32nd annual State of the Climate report. The international annual review of the world’s climate, led by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and published by the Bulletin of the […]

(a) Annual mean temperature anomalies in the Arctic (66.5∘–90∘N) (dark colours) and globally (light colours) during 1950–2021 derived from the various observational datasets. Temperature anomalies have been calculated relative to the standard 30-year period of 1981–2010. Shown are also the linear temperature trends for 1979–2021. (b) Annual mean temperature trends for the period 1979–2021, derived from the average of the observational datasets. Areas without a statistically significant change are masked out. (c) Local amplification ratio calculated for the period 1979–2021, derived from the average of the observational datasets. The dashed line in (b) and (c) depicts the Arctic Circle (66.5∘N latitude). Graphic: Rantanen, et al., 2022 / Communications Earth and Environment

August 14, 2022

Arctic warming four times faster than rest of Earth – “Something is happening in the Arctic, and it will affect us all”

PARIS, 11 August 2022 (AFP) – The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the rest of the planet over the last 40 years, according to research published Thursday that suggests climate models are underestimating the rate of polar heating. The United Nations’ climate science panel said in a special report in 2019 that […]

Projected forest position in Siberia and tundra area at year 3000 CE for different climate mitigation scenarios and under potential cooling back to 20th-century temperatures after peak temperatures have been reached. The area of tundra changes over time and can only partly recover when temperatures cool and forests recede (plots next of the maps show years 2000–3000 CE). Only tundra areas above the treeline (Walker et al., 2005) are considered. Map projection: Albers Equal Area. Graphic: Kruse and Herzschuh, 2022 / eLife

May 29, 2022

Siberia tundra could virtually disappear by mid-millennium – Larch forests could spread northward at a rate of 30 km per decade – “At this point, it’s a matter of life and death for the Siberian tundra”

25 May 2022 (AWI) – Due to global warming, temperatures in the Arctic are climbing rapidly. As a result, the treeline for Siberian larch forests is steadily advancing to the north, gradually supplanting the broad expanses of tundra which are home to a unique mix of flora and fauna. Experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute […]

Russia tree cover loss, 2001-2021. The rate of loss in in boreal forests reached unprecedented levels in 2021, increasing by 29 percent over 2020. An unprecedented fire season in Russia drove much of this increase. Russia experienced the worst fire season since record-keeping began in 2001, with more than 6.5 million hectares of tree cover loss in 2021. While fires are a natural part of boreal forest ecosystems, larger, more intense fires are worrying. Hotter, drier weather related to climate change has led to fire-prone conditions, drier peatlands and melted permafrost. Siberia’s vast peatland area — the largest in the world — stores massive amounts of carbon, which is released into the atmosphere when peat dries up. Melting permafrost also releases stored carbon and methane. These conditions may represent a new normal, impacting people living in Siberia and creating a feedback loop in which increasing fires and carbon emissions reinforce each other and lead to worsening conditions. Graphic: WRI

May 8, 2022

Vast forest losses in 2021 imperil global climate targets, report says – “We’re seeing fires burning more frequently, more intensively and more broadly than they ever would under normal conditions”

By Jake Spring 28 April 2022 SAO PAULO, April 28 (Reuters) – The world lost an area of forest the size of the U.S. state of Wyoming last year, as wildfires in Russia set all-time records and Brazilian deforestation of the Amazon remains high, a global forest monitoring project report said on Thursday. Global Forest Watch, which […]

Geographical distribution of the measured mass light absorption coefficient (at 365 nm, babs-365, Mm−1, M = 10−6) of water-soluble brown carbon (BrC) in the circum-Arctic. The data dots are plotted at the middle of each sample. The shading was interpolated based on the measurements using the Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis method in the software Ocean Data View. The color range is set as the 10th and 90th percentiles of babs-365. The observed babs-365 of water-soluble BrC at Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow) from August to September (2012) for PM10 samples (diamond) and at Alert from May to early June (1991) for total suspended samples (square) is also shown for comparison. Graphic: Yue, et al., 2022 / One Earth

March 20, 2022

Brown carbon from biomass burning imposes strong Arctic warming feedback – “We expect an increasing importance of brown carbon in the warming of the circum-arctic in the future”

18 March 2022 (Max Planck Institute for Chemistry) – Rapid warming in the Arctic and accelerated glacier and sea ice melting have a huge impact on the global environment. Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, and black carbon aerosols are well-known warming agents. In contrast, atmospheric, light absorbing brown carbon particles belong to the least […]

Map showing global land and ocean surface temperature anomaly for June 2020. On 14 December 2021, WMO announced verification of the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, 38C (100F). The high temperatures across Siberia led to massive sea ice loss and played a major role in 2020 being one of the three warmest years on record, the WMO said. Averaged as a whole, the global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2020 was 0.92°C (1.66°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), tying with 2015 as the third highest June temperature departure from average in the 141-year record. June 2020 marked the 44th consecutive June and the 426th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average. Nine of the 10 warmest Junes have occurred since 2010; the seven warmest Junes have occurred in the last seven years (2014–2020). Graphic: NCEI

December 29, 2021

Arctic heat record is like Mediterranean, says WMO – “The record is clearly indicative of warming across Siberia”

14 December 2021 (BBC News) – The highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, 38C (100F), has been officially confirmed, sounding “alarm bells” over Earth’s changing climate. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday verified the record, reported in the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk on 20 June last year. The temperature was 18C higher than […]

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) sea surface temperature (SST) fingerprint. Multimodel mean correlation map between the low-frequency AMOC at 26°N and SST (12). Stars numbered 1 to 16 denote location of sites referred in the figures. The reconstructed AMV at South Sawtooth Lake (1), August temperature in Vøring Plateau off Norway (2), Eastern Fram Strait IRD (3), Atlantic water influence based on C. neoteresis in Western Fram Strait (4), East Greenland Strait N. labradorica (5), North Icelandic shelf temperature based on δ18O from bivalve shells (6), IRD in Denmark Strait (7), the RAPiD-35-COM δ18O T. quinqueloba (8), percentage of Atlantic species in Disko Bugt (9), the RAPID-21-COM sortable silt in the ISOW (10), Gulf of Maine reconstructed SST from bivalve shells (11), titanium (%) in the Cariaco Basin (12), Quelccaya ice record δ18O (13), Huagapo speleothem δ18O (14), and Lake Bosumtwi lake level inferred from δ18O (15). The James Ross Island ice core record with annually resolved δD is shown (16). Graphic: Lapointe and Bradley, 2021 / Science Advances

December 25, 2021

Researchers uncover the surprising cause of the Little Ice Age – “We may be underestimating future ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet”

AMHERST, Massachusetts, 15 December 2021 (University of Massachusetts Amherst) – New research from the University of Massachusetts Amherst provides a novel answer to one of the persistent questions in historical climatology, environmental history and the earth sciences: what caused the Little Ice Age? The answer, we now know, is a paradox: warming. The Little Ice […]

(a) Linear sea surface temperature (SST) trend (°C yr-1) for August of each year from 1982 to 2021. The trend is only shown for values that are statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence interval; the region is shaded gray otherwise. White shading is the August 2021 mean sea ice extent, and the yellow line indicates the median ice edge for Aug 1982-2010, (b, c) Area-averaged SST anomalies (°C) for August of each year (1982-2021) relative to the 1982-2010 August mean for (b) Baffin Bay and (c) Chukchi Sea regions shown by blue boxes in (a). The dotted lines show the linear SST anomaly trends over the period shown and trends in °C yr-1 (with 95 percent confidence intervals) are shown on the plots. Mean August SST warming trends from 1982 to 2021 persist over much of the Arctic Ocean, with statistically significant (at the 95 percent confidence interval) linear warming trends of up to +0.1°C yr-1 (a). Overall, Baffin Bay SSTs are becoming warmer in August with a linear warming trend over 1982-2021 of 0.05 ± 0.01°C yr-1 (b). Similarly, Chukchi Sea August mean SSTs are warming, with a linear trend of 0.06 ± 0.03°C yr-1 (c). Mean August SSTs for the entire Arctic (the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas north of 67° N) exhibit a linear warming trend of 0.03 ± 0.01°C yr-1. Graphic: Timmermans and Labe / NOAA

December 24, 2021

NOAA’s 2021 Arctic Report Card: Rapid and pronounced warming continues to drive the evolution of the Arctic environment

By T. A. Moon, M. L. Druckenmiller, and R. L. Thoman 6 December 2021 (NOAA) – As the influences of human-caused global warming continue to intensify, with the Arctic warming significantly faster than the globe overall, the 2021 Arctic Report Card (ARC2021) brings a broad view of the state of the Arctic climate and environment. […]

Desdemona Despair

Tag: Arctic