permafrost – Desdemona Despair

Atmospheric and wildfire responses to soil moisture reduction in the idealized experiments using the CESM2. The values represent differences between the response of a 40% soil moisture reduction perturbation experiment in July 2045 and a control simulation: (a) soil moisture in 0–10 cm depth (units: kg/m2), (b) surface air temperature (units: °C), (c) relative humidity at 2 m (units: %), and (d) logarithm of burned area [log (burned area)] (units: km2). Time evolution over Western Siberia (65.5°N, 83.75°E): (e) soil moisture over 0–10 cm depth (units: kg/m2), (f) surface air temperature (units: °C), (g) relative humidity at 2 m (units: %), and (h) logarithm of the burned area [log (burned area)] (units: km2) (blue: control simulation, yellow: 20% soil moisture reduction perturbation experiment, and brown: 40% soil moisture reduction perturbation experiment). Graphic: Kim et al., 2024 / Nature Communications

October 5, 2024

Abrupt intensification of northern wildfires due to future permafrost thawing – “These climate conditions lead to rapid intensification of wildfires in western Siberia and Canada in the mid-to-end of the 21st century”

25 September 2024 (IBS Center for Climate Physics) – A study, published in the journal Nature Communications by an international team of climate scientists and permafrost experts shows that, according to new climate computer model simulations, global warming will accelerate permafrost thawing and as a result lead to an abrupt intensification of wildfires in the Subarctic and […]

Charles Alexie and Gerald Tom near visible coastal erosion that encroaches on Newtok village in Alaska, on 16 August 2024. Erosion and melting permafrost have largely destroyed Newtok, eating about 70 feet (21.34 meters) of land every year. Photo: Rick Bowmer / AP

October 1, 2024

Climate change destroyed an Alaska village. Its residents are starting over in a new town – “Alaska Native economic, social, and cultural ways of being, which have served so well for millennia, are now under extreme threat due to accelerated environmental change”

By Rick Bowmer and Mark Thiessen 28 September 2024 MERTARVIK, Alaska (AP) – Growing up along the banks of the Ninglick River in western Alaska, Ashley Tom would look out of her window after strong storms from the Bering Sea hit her village and notice something unsettling: the riverbank was creeping ever closer. It was […]

Effects of experimental open-top chamber (OTC) warming on ecosystem respiration (ER). Experimental warming increased ER across the tundra biome but the magnitude of the response varied across time and space. Effect of OTC warming on ER Hedges’ SMD calculated as (mean ER of the warmed plots − mean ER of the control plots)/pooled standard deviation across the 136 growing season datasets (that is, unique experiment × ER measurement year combinations). On the top of the graph, a blue diamond shows the mean estimate (est. = 0.57 and 95% CI [0.44–0.70], error bars) of the ER response across the 136 datasets, as well as the Q value testing for heterogeneity and P value from the meta-analysis. Black dots represent ER Hedges’ SMDs of individual datasets and 95% CIs (black error bars) in alphabetical and chronological order. Individual datasets are represented by the experiment ID in black (left) and ER measurement year (right) in a colour scale ranging from dark blue, light blue, orange to red which represents increasingly longer warming duration at the time of ER measurements. Experiments with more than 1 year of ER data are grouped. See Supplementary Tables 1, 2 and 4 for details on the datasets and SMD and CI values. The black dashed vertical line (SMD = 0) represents no change in ER with warming whereas the areas to the right and left of it represent increased (SMD > 0) versus decreased (SMD

April 28, 2024

Understanding climate warming impacts on carbon release from the tundra – “We anticipate an increase in respiration across the whole Arctic and alpine tundra”

By Sara-Lena Brännström 17 April 2024 (Umeå University) – A team of over 70 scientists from different countries used so called open-top chambers (OTCs) to experimentally simulate the effects of warming on 28 tundra sites around the world. OTCs basically serve as mini-greenhouses, blocking wind and trapping heat to create local warming. The warming experiments […]

Tukpahlearik Creek in northwestern Alaska’s Brooks Range runs bright orange where permafrost is thawing. Photo: Taylor Roades / Scientific American

December 28, 2023

Why are Alaska’s rivers turning orange? “It was a famous, pristine river ecosystem, and it feels like it’s completely collapsing now”

By Alec Luhn 24 December 2023 (Scientific American) – It was a cloudy July afternoon in Alaska’s Kobuk Valley National Park, part of the biggest stretch of protected wilderness in the U.S. We were 95 kilometers (60 miles) from the nearest village and 400 kilometers from the road system. Nature doesn’t get any more unspoiled. […]

The effect of Arctic wildfires on carbon release: Arctic wildfires accelerate the release of organic carbon from the soil into the atmosphere, which can strengthen the feedback to warming. Graphic: V. Altounian / Science

December 23, 2022

Unprecedented Arctic wildfires fuel climate warming cycle – “Larger and more intense wildfires could substantially accelerate the release of permafrost carbon into the atmosphere”

By Kat Kerlin 8 November 2022 (UC Davis) – From Sierra Nevada forests to Arctic peatlands, climate warming is turning some long-held carbon sinks into carbon sources as wildfires increasingly send stored carbon up in smoke. In the Arctic, vast amounts of carbon have been locked beneath frozen soil, much of it in peatlands. Climate warming dries […]

The location of climate tipping elements in the cryosphere (blue), biosphere (green) and ocean/atmosphere (orange), and global warming levels their tipping points will likely be triggered at 1.5°C. Researchers see signs of destabilisation already in parts of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, in permafrost regions, the Amazon rainforest, and potentially the Atlantic overturning circulation as well. Graphic: Earth Commission / Globaïa

September 25, 2022

World at risk of passing multiple climate tipping points above 1.5°C global warming

8 September 2022 (Stockholm Resilience Centre) – Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks […]

Projected forest position in Siberia and tundra area at year 3000 CE for different climate mitigation scenarios and under potential cooling back to 20th-century temperatures after peak temperatures have been reached. The area of tundra changes over time and can only partly recover when temperatures cool and forests recede (plots next of the maps show years 2000–3000 CE). Only tundra areas above the treeline (Walker et al., 2005) are considered. Map projection: Albers Equal Area. Graphic: Kruse and Herzschuh, 2022 / eLife

May 29, 2022

Siberia tundra could virtually disappear by mid-millennium – Larch forests could spread northward at a rate of 30 km per decade – “At this point, it’s a matter of life and death for the Siberian tundra”

25 May 2022 (AWI) – Due to global warming, temperatures in the Arctic are climbing rapidly. As a result, the treeline for Siberian larch forests is steadily advancing to the north, gradually supplanting the broad expanses of tundra which are home to a unique mix of flora and fauna. Experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute […]

Russia tree cover loss, 2001-2021. The rate of loss in in boreal forests reached unprecedented levels in 2021, increasing by 29 percent over 2020. An unprecedented fire season in Russia drove much of this increase. Russia experienced the worst fire season since record-keeping began in 2001, with more than 6.5 million hectares of tree cover loss in 2021. While fires are a natural part of boreal forest ecosystems, larger, more intense fires are worrying. Hotter, drier weather related to climate change has led to fire-prone conditions, drier peatlands and melted permafrost. Siberia’s vast peatland area — the largest in the world — stores massive amounts of carbon, which is released into the atmosphere when peat dries up. Melting permafrost also releases stored carbon and methane. These conditions may represent a new normal, impacting people living in Siberia and creating a feedback loop in which increasing fires and carbon emissions reinforce each other and lead to worsening conditions. Graphic: WRI

May 8, 2022

Vast forest losses in 2021 imperil global climate targets, report says – “We’re seeing fires burning more frequently, more intensively and more broadly than they ever would under normal conditions”

By Jake Spring 28 April 2022 SAO PAULO, April 28 (Reuters) – The world lost an area of forest the size of the U.S. state of Wyoming last year, as wildfires in Russia set all-time records and Brazilian deforestation of the Amazon remains high, a global forest monitoring project report said on Thursday. Global Forest Watch, which […]

Map showing global land and ocean surface temperature anomaly for June 2020. On 14 December 2021, WMO announced verification of the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, 38C (100F). The high temperatures across Siberia led to massive sea ice loss and played a major role in 2020 being one of the three warmest years on record, the WMO said. Averaged as a whole, the global land and ocean surface temperature for June 2020 was 0.92°C (1.66°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), tying with 2015 as the third highest June temperature departure from average in the 141-year record. June 2020 marked the 44th consecutive June and the 426th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average. Nine of the 10 warmest Junes have occurred since 2010; the seven warmest Junes have occurred in the last seven years (2014–2020). Graphic: NCEI

December 29, 2021

Arctic heat record is like Mediterranean, says WMO – “The record is clearly indicative of warming across Siberia”

14 December 2021 (BBC News) – The highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic, 38C (100F), has been officially confirmed, sounding “alarm bells” over Earth’s changing climate. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday verified the record, reported in the Siberian town of Verkhoyansk on 20 June last year. The temperature was 18C higher than […]

(a) Linear sea surface temperature (SST) trend (°C yr-1) for August of each year from 1982 to 2021. The trend is only shown for values that are statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence interval; the region is shaded gray otherwise. White shading is the August 2021 mean sea ice extent, and the yellow line indicates the median ice edge for Aug 1982-2010, (b, c) Area-averaged SST anomalies (°C) for August of each year (1982-2021) relative to the 1982-2010 August mean for (b) Baffin Bay and (c) Chukchi Sea regions shown by blue boxes in (a). The dotted lines show the linear SST anomaly trends over the period shown and trends in °C yr-1 (with 95 percent confidence intervals) are shown on the plots. Mean August SST warming trends from 1982 to 2021 persist over much of the Arctic Ocean, with statistically significant (at the 95 percent confidence interval) linear warming trends of up to +0.1°C yr-1 (a). Overall, Baffin Bay SSTs are becoming warmer in August with a linear warming trend over 1982-2021 of 0.05 ± 0.01°C yr-1 (b). Similarly, Chukchi Sea August mean SSTs are warming, with a linear trend of 0.06 ± 0.03°C yr-1 (c). Mean August SSTs for the entire Arctic (the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas north of 67° N) exhibit a linear warming trend of 0.03 ± 0.01°C yr-1. Graphic: Timmermans and Labe / NOAA

December 24, 2021

NOAA’s 2021 Arctic Report Card: Rapid and pronounced warming continues to drive the evolution of the Arctic environment

By T. A. Moon, M. L. Druckenmiller, and R. L. Thoman 6 December 2021 (NOAA) – As the influences of human-caused global warming continue to intensify, with the Arctic warming significantly faster than the globe overall, the 2021 Arctic Report Card (ARC2021) brings a broad view of the state of the Arctic climate and environment. […]