population – Page 2 – Desdemona Despair

Percentage of OECD countries experiencing higher-than-average inflation, 1970-2022. The global inflation shock that began in the United States in 2021 and took hold worldwide in 2022 will have powerful economic and political ripple effects in 2023. It will be the principal driver of global recession, add to financial stress, and stoke social discontent and political instability everywhere. Today’s historically high inflation comes from multiple sources. First was the Covid-19 pandemic, which prompted governments to cushion the fall in incomes with extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time that it disrupted global supply. Then, just as the United States and Europe were coming out of the pandemic thanks to vaccines, China doubled down on its zero-Covid policy, locking down the global economy’s most important manufacturing and shipping hubs. Finally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s sanctions in response put a strain on the global supply of energy, food, and fertilizer. This unprecedented confluence of overlapping shocks pushed inflation to levels most countries hadn’t seen in nearly 50 years. Graphic: Eurasia Group

January 22, 2023

Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2023 – “The risks this year are the most dangerous we’ve encountered in the 25 years since we started Eurasia Group”

By Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan 3 January 2023 (Eurasia Group) – Russia has no way to win in Ukraine. The European Union is stronger than ever. NATO rediscovered its reason for being. The G7 is strengthening. Renewables are becoming dirt cheap. American hard power remains unrivaled. Midterms in the United States were decidedly normal […]

Ducks swim through an algae bloom in Santuit Pond in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in July 2018. Photo: Steve Heaslip / The Cape Cod Times / Associated Press

January 2, 2023

A toxic stew on cape cod: Human waste and warming water

By Christopher Flavelle 1 January 2023 MASHPEE, Massachusetts (The New York Times) – Ashley K. Fisher walked to the edge of the boat, pulled on a pair of thick black waders, and jumped into the river to search for the dead. She soon found them: the encrusted remains of ribbed mussels, choked in gray-black goo […]

Global human population, 1700-2022. On 15 November 2022, the world’s population was estimated to reach 8 billion people, having grown by 1 billion since 2010. This is a remarkable milestone given that the human population numbered under 1 billion for millennia until around 1800, and that it took more than 100 years to grow from 1 to 2 billion. By comparison, the increase of the world’s population over the last century has been quite rapid. Despite a gradual slowing in the pace of growth, the global population is projected to surpass 9 billion around 2037 and 10 billion around 2058. Graphic: UN DESA

November 19, 2022

Global human population hits 8 billion – “We are already overstretching what we have: the housing, roads, the hospitals, schools. Everything is overstretched.”

By Dan Ikpoyi and Chinedu Asadu 15 November 2022 LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) – The world’s population will likely hit an estimated 8 billion people on Tuesday, according to a United Nations projection, with much of the growth coming from developing nations in Africa. Among them is Nigeria, where resources are already stretched to the limit. More than […]

Components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, 1960-2021 and projected to 2022. Components are presented individually for (a) fossil CO2 and cement carbonation emissions (EFOS), (b) growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration (GATM), (c) emissions from land-use change (ELUC), (d) the land CO2 sink (SLAND), (e) the ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN), and (f) the budget imbalance that is not accounted for by the other terms. Positive values of SLAND and SOCEAN represent a flux from the atmosphere to land or the ocean. All data are in GtC yr−1 with the uncertainty bounds representing ±1 standard deviation in shaded colour. Data sources are as in Fig. 3. The red dots indicate our projections for the year 2022, and the red error bars the uncertainty in the projections. Graphic: Friedlingstein, et al., 2022 / Earth System Science Data

November 19, 2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022: Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels – No sign of decrease in global CO2 emissions – “This year we see yet another rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, when we need a rapid decline”

11 November 2022 (Global Carbon Project) – Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels – with no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the Global Carbon Project science team (Global Carbon Budget 2022). If current emissions levels persist, there is now a 50% chance […]

Absolute change in days of crop growth duration, 1981-2021, compared to a 1981-2010 baseline, globally and by WHO region. Maize, rice, soybean, spring wheat, and winter wheat are shown. Relative to 1981-2010, higher temperatures in 2021 shortened crop growth seasons globally by 9.3 days for maize, 1.7 days for rice and 6 days for winter and spring wheat, and heatwave days in 2020 were associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Graphic: The Lancet

November 13, 2022

8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences

By Maureen Lichtveld 10 November 2022 (The Conversation) – Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? These risks all have three things in […]

Aerial view of a structure burning during a wildfire in Palo Pinto County, Texas on Monday, 18 July 2022. The 110-degree heat wave caused a record 24 wildfires in Texas this week. Two Texas wildfires consumed at least 21 homes amid the record heat wave. Photo: KDFW FOX 4 / AP

July 21, 2022

U.S. Central states, Texas break power use records again in heat wave – Texas Gov. Abbott’s inaction leads to huge electricity bills

20 July 2022 (Reuters) – Power use in Texas and other central states hit all-time highs Tuesday and could break that record again in Texas on Wednesday as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners to escape a brutal heat wave blanketing most of the country. Electric grid operators across the country said they have […]

World cereal production, utilization, stocks, 2012-2022 and projected to 2023. Based on world cereal production and utilization estimates, cereal stocks at the end of seasons in 2022 are seen rising above their opening levels but remaining below the record levels reached in 2018/19. Global trade in cereals in 2021/22 is estimated below the 2020/21 record level, mostly owing to an expected fall in global maize trade and reflecting the impact of disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine. Looking forward to the 2022/23 season, early prospects for cereal production in 2022 point to a likely decrease, which would mark the first decline in four years. Graphic: FAO

June 3, 2022

World cereal production, utilization, stocks, and trade all likely to contract in 2022/23 – U.N. forecast shows first decline in world cereal utilization in twenty years

3 June 2022 (FAO) – FAO’s latest estimates indicate a year-on-year 0.9 percent increase in global cereal production in 2021, largely attributed to a higher maize output. Cereal utilization is also estimated to increase in 2021/22, by 1.1 percent, driven by (in order of magnitude) expansions in food consumption (especially of wheat and rice), other […]

Population of Japan and annual population growth rate, 1950-2020. Graphic: Worldometer

April 17, 2022

Japan population plummeted by 640,000 in 2021 for biggest drop on record – People aged 14 or younger accounted for a record-low 11.8 percent

15 April 2022 (The Japan Times) – Japan’s population totaled 125,502,000 as of Oct. 1, down 644,000 from a year earlier to mark the biggest decline on record in the rapidly graying nation, government data showed Friday. The population dipped for the 11th consecutive year, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said. According to […]

Projected U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by fuel source in the AEO2022 reference case (left) and U.S. Energy-related CO2 emissions by AEO2022 economic growth cases (right). Energy‐related CO2 emissions dip through 2035 before climbing in later projection years. Graphic: EIA

March 12, 2022

U.S. energy projections to 2050: Fossil fuels still most-consumed energy sources through 2050 – Energy consumption increases as population and economic growth outweigh efficiency gains – Energy‐related CO2 emissions dip through 2035 but climb later

3 March 2022 (EIA) – Key takeaways from the Reference case and side cases: Petroleum and natural gas remain the most-consumed sources of energy in the United States through 2050, but renewable energy is the fastest growing Motor gasoline remains the most prevalent transportation fuel despite electric vehicles gaining market share Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) […]

Time series of climate-related responses to anthropogenic drivers, 1990-2020. Out of the 31 tracked planetary vital signs, 18 were at new all-time record lows or highs in 2020. Data obtained before and after the publication of Ripple and colleagues (2020) are shown in gray and red respectively. For variables with relatively high variability, local regression trend lines are shown in black. The variables were measured at various frequencies (e.g., annual, monthly, weekly). The labels on the x-axis correspond to midpoints of years. Sources and additional details about each variable are provided in the supplemental material. Graphic: Ripple, et al., 2021 / BioScience

July 31, 2021

World scientists’ warning of a climate emergency 2021 – Humans face untold suffering from “the consequences of unrelenting business as usual”

28 July 2021 (BioScience) – In 2019, Ripple and colleagues (2020) warned of untold suffering and declared a climate emergency together with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries. They presented graphs of planetary vital signs indicating very troubling trends, along with little progress by humanity to address climate change. On the basis of […]