DoomiestGraph – Page 18 – Desdemona Despair

Changes in flood insurance rates in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Data: FEMA. Graphic: WUSF

May 30, 2023

Flood insurance costs to soar in Florida – In the most expensive ZIP code for flood insurance in South Florida, average premiums will rise above $7,000 per year

By Nicolas Rivero 21 May 2023 (WUSF) – Brace for a few years of flood insurance rate hikes, South Florida. And they’re going to be steep — doubling, even tripling for thousands of homeowners. FEMA has changed the way it calculates flood insurance prices. Instead of relying on old flood zone maps covering broad areas, […]

a, Volume transport. Black symbols show estimates ± calculated total uncertainty made using joint mooring-model-hydrographic method (square/triangle/circle symbols, 84° E/140° E/170° E; equation (2), Extended Data Fig. 7 and Supplementary Section 2). White symbols show comparative estimates from other studies11,24,47,48,49,50 (Supplementary Table 3). Blue line, total volume transport for time periods of 1994–1996, 2007–2011 and 2016–2018, which estimates the strength of the lower limb of overturning circulation in the Australian Antarctic Basin (shading shows total error of 1.2 Sv; Supplementary Table 2). b, Oxygen transport. Black line, total oxygen transport that estimates abyssal ventilation ± total uncertainty of 290 Sv mol kg−1 (equation (3)). c, Comparison of lower limb of overturning circulation and shelf salinities from a site of DSW formation in Ross Sea (Terra Nova Bay; refs. 12,13,35). Dotted blue arrows show declining trend in overturning for 1994–2009 and 1994–2017 that have uncertainties of ±0.5 Sv decade−1. Graphic: Gunn, et al., 2023 / Nature Climate Change

May 29, 2023

Deep ocean currents around Antarctica headed for collapse – “Such profound changes to the ocean’s overturning of heat, freshwater, oxygen, carbon, and nutrients will have a significant adverse impact on the oceans for centuries to come”

By Kathy Gunn, Matthew England, and Steve Rintoul 25 May 2023 (The Conversation) – Antarctica sets the stage for the world’s greatest waterfall. The action takes place beneath the surface of the ocean. Here, trillions of tonnes of cold, dense, oxygen-rich water cascade off the continental shelf and sink to great depths. This Antarctic “bottom […]

Maps showing the global distribution of animals with decreasing (top), stable (middle) or increasing (bottom) populations combining data from all taxonomic groups. Numbers of species were counted within each 1° × 1° grid cell covering the globe, using a Behrmann’s equal area projection. Graphic: Finn, et al., 2023 / Biological Reviews

May 29, 2023

Global loss of biodiversity is significantly more alarming than previously suspected – “Almost half of animals on Earth for which assessments are available are currently declining. To make matters worse, many of the animal species that are thought to be non-threatened from extinction are in fact progressively declining”

23 May 2023 (Queen’s University Belfast) – A new study led by researchers from Queen’s University Belfast has shown that the global loss of biodiversity caused by human industrialisation is significantly more alarming than previously thought. The global-scale analysis has been published in the journal Biological Reviews. The study looked at changes in the population densities […]

Estimated conifer vegetation climate mismatch (VCM) in the Sierra Nevada (2015-2020). (a) The conifer HSM projected to contemporary climate and overlayed on the modern conifer distribution (EVeg) reveals that up to 19.5% of modern conifer forest is in VCM, primarily along the low-elevation western slope of the Sierras. The total area of conifers shown is 40,495 km2, of which ∼32,500 km2 are in equilibrium with the modern climate. (b) Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter and Mean Annual Precipitation were the most important predictors in the HSM (meanMTWQ = 0.518, SEMTWQ = 0.209 and meanMAP = 0.418, SEMAP = 0.139). Standard error bars are included in the barplot. (c) Boxplots show the difference between modern (2015–2020) and historical (1915–1955) climate within the conifer VCM regions. Change in climate is calculated as the number of standard deviations the modern climate differs from the historical period. Though the differences were statistically significant for each climate variable (p < 8.45 × 10−12, independent t-test), Precipitation of Driest Month showed the greatest decrease (mean = −2.41, SD = 2.84) and MTWQ the greatest increase (mean = 1.59, SD = 0.329) between the historical and modern climate. Mean Annual Precipitation changed the least within the VCM area (mean = 0.165, SD = 0.395). Boxplots include the median line, a box denoting the interquartile range, and whiskers showing values ±1.5 × the interquartile range. Graphic: Hill, et al., 2023 / PNAS Nexus

May 29, 2023

Researchers are discovering “zombie forests” in new places across the western U.S. – “Our maps force some critical – and difficult – conversations about how to manage impending ecological transitions”

By Brendan O’Leary 13 May 2023 (The Cool Down) – It’s no secret that our warming atmosphere has resulted in extreme weather all over the world, but there’s also a less noticeable consequence at work as well. Rising ambient temperatures mean that thousands of coniferous forests in California will be unable to replenish their numbers once they die. What […]

Aerial view near Jungersen Gletschur in Greenland. The white lines show where scientists believe the glacier edges were in 1900. Photo: Bob Elberling

May 29, 2023

Accelerated melting of glaciers in Greenland – Greenland’s glaciers have lost at least 587 cubic km of ice over the last century

26 May 2023 (University of Leeds) – A study has found widespread mass loss of glaciers and ice caps in Greenland since the start of the 20th century. The research provides critical insights into long-term changes to the glaciers and ice caps as a result of climate change, which has contributed about one fifth to […]

Two of three male spotted owls released into the wild in the Fraser Canyon. Two died and the other was injured and returned to captivity. Photo: BC government

May 27, 2023

“All I see are ghosts”: fear and fury as the last spotted owl in Canada fights for survival

By Leyland Cecco 26 May 2023 Spô’zêm First Nation, Canada (The Guardian) – On a rainy spring morning, huddled under the shelter of an ancient cedar, Jared Hobbs hoots, whoops and squawks. In years past, he could lure curious owls by drawing on his extensive repertoire. Among them are the whoo whoo whoo whooo territorial calls, alarm […]

a–f, Fraction of population (%; a–c) and absolute population (billion people; d–f) exposed to unprecedented temperatures (MAT ≥29 °C; a,d), left outside the niche due to temperature change only (b,e,) and left outside the niche due to temperature change and demographic change (c,f) for different SSPs. Calculations are based on MAT averaged over the 20-year intervals and population density distribution at the centre year of the corresponding intervals. Data are presented as mean values with the shaded regions corresponding to the 5th–95th percentiles. Graphic: Lenton, et al., 2023 / Nature Sustainability

May 27, 2023

Current climate policies will leave more than a fifth of humanity exposed to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100 – “For every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat”

By Alex Morrison 22 May 2023 (University of Exeter) – Current climate policies will leave more than a fifth of humanity exposed to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100, new research suggests. Despite the Paris Agreement pledge to keep global warming well below 2°C (compared to pre-industrial levels), current policies are projected to result in 2.7°C warming by the […]

CO2 equivalent mixing ratio of atmospheric greenhouse gases, 1979-2022. The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) tracks increases in the warming influence of heat-trapping gases generated by human activity, including carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and 15 other gases. This illustration depicts the increase in radiative forcing, relative to 1750, of virtually all long-lived greenhouse gases. The AGGI, which is indexed to 1 for the year 1990, is shown on the right axis. Graphic: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory

May 24, 2023

NOAA index tracks how greenhouse gas pollution amplified global warming in 2022 – Methane and nitrous oxide rise near record levels – “Alternative energy sources to replace fossil fuels exist, but cutting emissions associated with producing food is perhaps an even more difficult task”

23 May 2023 (NOAA) – Greenhouse gas pollution from human activity trapped 49 percent more heat in the atmosphere during 2022 than those same gases did in 1990, according to an annual NOAA report. NOAA’s Annual Greenhouse Gas Index, known as the AGGI, tracks increases in the warming influence of heat-trapping gases generated by human activity, […]

During the last week of April 2023, temperatures in parts of Spain, Portugal, Morocco and Algeria were up to 20°C higher than normal for the time of year. Graphic: Met Office

May 21, 2023

Western Mediterranean heatwave rare even for today’s warmed world – Extreme April 2023 heat in Spain, Portugal, Morocco, and Algeria almost impossible without climate change

7 May 2023 (Climate Centre) – A rapid study of last month’s extraordinary heatwave in the western Mediterranean by World Weather Attribution scientists says that while Europe and North Africa have experienced more extreme heat in recent years, the April heatwave was “so extreme that it is also a rare event in today’s warmer climate”. During the […]

U. S. Black population excess age-adjusted mortality and years of potential life lost rates, 1999-2020. To assess trends over time, the relationship between each metric and study year was graphically assessed, and time was modeled as a linear spline with knots that reflected the observed inflection points from 1999 to 2019. For excess mortality rates, these inflection points were from 2007 to 2011 for males and 2015 for females. For excess rates of years of potential life lost, the knots were 2007 and 2011 for males and 2012 for females. Rates that fall above the dotted line indicate rates higher than the White population and those that fall below, rates lower than the White population. Autoregressive integrated moving average models using a 1-year correlation were implemented to account for the serial correlation of annual rates. The 2019-2020 change was estimated using a z test. Graphic: Caraballo, et al., 2023 / JAMA

May 21, 2023

Black Americans experienced 1.6 million excess deaths compared to White population over 22-year period, study finds – “It led us back to a situation where we were no better than we were 20 years ago”

By Sara Moniuszko and Danya Bacchus 16 May 2023 (CBS News) – Despite years of efforts to reduce health disparities, a new study is calling attention to the drastic differences in mortality that continue to take a toll among Black Americans. Researchers found the Black population in the United States experienced more than 1.63 million excess […]