The Doomsday Clock in 2023. In 2023, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists advanced the clock to 90 seconds from midnight, the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. Graphic: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

2023 Doomsday Clock statement: A time of unprecedented danger – It is 90 seconds to midnight

By John Mecklin 24 January 2023 (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists) – This year, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists moves the hands of the Doomsday Clock forward, largely (though not exclusively) because of the mounting dangers of the war in Ukraine. The Clock now stands at 90 seconds […]

Percentage of OECD countries experiencing higher-than-average inflation, 1970-2022. The global inflation shock that began in the United States in 2021 and took hold worldwide in 2022 will have powerful economic and political ripple effects in 2023. It will be the principal driver of global recession, add to financial stress, and stoke social discontent and political instability everywhere. Today’s historically high inflation comes from multiple sources. First was the Covid-19 pandemic, which prompted governments to cushion the fall in incomes with extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time that it disrupted global supply. Then, just as the United States and Europe were coming out of the pandemic thanks to vaccines, China doubled down on its zero-Covid policy, locking down the global economy’s most important manufacturing and shipping hubs. Finally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s sanctions in response put a strain on the global supply of energy, food, and fertilizer. This unprecedented confluence of overlapping shocks pushed inflation to levels most countries hadn’t seen in nearly 50 years. Graphic: Eurasia Group

Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2023 – “The risks this year are the most dangerous we’ve encountered in the 25 years since we started Eurasia Group”

By Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan 3 January 2023 (Eurasia Group) – Russia has no way to win in Ukraine. The European Union is stronger than ever. NATO rediscovered its reason for being. The G7 is strengthening. Renewables are becoming dirt cheap. American hard power remains unrivaled. Midterms in the United States were decidedly normal […]

Yearly change in life expectancy in the U.S. and 30 other countries, 1901-2022. Data: Schöley, et al., 2022. Graphic: Fortune

The first global decline in life expectancy since World War II poses a major threat to the economy

By Matthew Heimer and Nicolas Rapp6 December 2022 (Fortune) – COVID’s devastation shows up starkly in life expectancy data: The pandemic’s peak marked the first time since World War II that LE (as demographers call it) declined across the globe. The graphic above is based on a data set that focuses mostly on Europe, but similar […]

FAO Food Price Index in real terms, 1961-2022. In 2022, the U.N. organization’s Food Price Index hit the highest level since its records began in 1961, according to FAO data. Data: UN FAO. Graphic: James P. Galasyn

Global food prices in 2022 hit record high amid drought, war

ROME, 6 January 2023 (AP) – Global prices for food commodities like grain and vegetable oils were the highest on record last year even after falling for nine months in a row, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said, as Russia’s war in Ukraine, drought and other factors drove up inflation and worsened hunger worldwide. The FAO […]

Global excess and reported COVID-19 deaths and death rates per 100,000 population, January 2020-January 2022. (a) Cumulative global excess death estimates and the cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths by month from January 2020 to December 2021. (b) Global excess death rates per 100,000 population and the reported COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 population, also by month, from January 2020 to December 2021. On both plots, the central lines of the excess mortality series show the mean estimates, and the shaded regions indicate the 95 percent uncertainty intervals. Graphic: Msemburi, et al., 2022 / Nature

WHO study reports global Covid death toll likely three times higher than official records – Pandemic may have claimed nearly 15 million lives, more than 2.7 times official reports of 5.4 million – India mortality alone may be 6.45 million dead

By Robert Hart 14 December 2022 (Forbes) – The Covid-19 pandemic may have claimed nearly 15 million around the world in 2020 and 2021, according to World Health Organization estimates published in Nature on Wednesday, almost three times what was reported in official records and underscoring the devastating and far-reaching impact of the disease as countries strive to return […]

Map showing the Rainfall Accumulation Anomaly in the Horn of Africa during the 2010-2011, 2016-2017, and 2020-2022 droughts. Communities in the Horn of Africa are in the midst of a likely fifth consecutive failed rainy season — with the October-December 2022 rains beginning poorly and forecasts indicating they are likely to underperform — and may face a sixth failed season in March-May 2023. The October-December 2020, March-May 2021, October-December 2021 and March-May 2022 seasons were all marred by below-average rainfall, leaving large swathes of Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya facing the most prolonged drought in recent history, while the March-May 2022 rainy season was the driest on record in the last 70 years. The 2020-2022 drought has now surpassed the horrific droughts in 2010-2011 and 2016-2017 in both duration and severity and will continue to deepen in the months ahead, with catastrophic consequences. Data: USGS FEWS NE (Africa CHIRPS Anomaly 3-Monthly, MAM and OND). Graphic: OCHA

UNICEF: More than twenty million children suffering in Horn of Africa as drought intensifies – Two million people displaced internally, 9.5 million livestock dead – “We fled hunger, but hunger followed us here”

NAIROBI, 22 December 2022 (UNICEF) –The number of children suffering dire drought conditions across Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia has more than doubled in five months, according to UNICEF. Around 20.2 million children are now facing the threat of severe hunger, thirst and disease, compared to 10 million in July, as climate change, conflict, global inflation, and grain […]

Photo portrait of economist Nouriel Roubini. Photo: Charlie Bibby / Financial Times

Financial Times interview with economist Nouriel Roubini, aka “Dr. Doom” – “I think that really the world is on a slow-motion train wreck”

By Henry Mance 18 December 2022 (Financial Times) – Nouriel Roubini is gloomy, and it’s not just that he arrived in London on a red-eye flight and couldn’t get a table at Nobu. It’s not even conventional economic worries. It’s everything: a confluence of problems, old and new. “I think that really the world is […]

Map showing nations where journalists were killed or imprisoned during 2022. The IFJ released the latest figures ahead of International Human Rights Day, recording 67 killings of journalists and media staff in the line of duty in 2022 compared to 47 last year - a reversal of the decline recorded in recent years. Graphic: IFJ

67 journalists killed so far in 2022 – “The surge in the killings of journalists and other media workers is a grave cause of concern and yet another wake up call for governments across the globe to take action in the defence of journalism, one of the key pillars of democracy”

9 December 2022 (IFJ) – The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) today renewed its call on the international community for concrete action to protect the safety and freedoms of journalists as it recorded a spike in the numbers of journalists killed or imprisoned during 2022. The vote on the IFJ Convention on the Safety and […]

In this image taken from footage provided by the RU-RTR Russian television on Sunday, 4 December 2022, journalists and Interdistrict Environmental Prosecutor’s Office employees walk near the bodies of dead seals on shore of the Caspian Sea, Dagestan. A top Russian environmental official said Monday that the thousands of dead seals that washed up on Russia’s Caspian Sea coast likely died from oxygen deprivation. Photo: RU-RTR Russian Television / AP

Russia: Mass seal death likely due to oxygen deprivation

MOSCOW, 5 December 2022 (AP) – A top Russian environmental official said Monday that the thousands of dead seals that washed up on Russia’s Caspian Sea coast likely died from oxygen deprivation. Officials in the republic of Dagestan, which has a long coastline on the world’s largest inland body of water, said this week that […]

The body of a dolphin washed up on a beach in a nature reserve in the Odesa region of Ukraine, one of thousands killed in 2022 during Russia’s war on Ukraine. Photo: Ivan Rusev / RFE/RL

Tens of thousands of dead dolphins among environmental casualties of Ukraine war – “When the Black Sea was being bombed, we could feel it too”

By Stuart Greer 3 December 2022 (RFE/RL) – A Ukrainian marine biologist estimates that at least 50,000 Black Sea dolphins have been killed as a result of Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. Ivan Rusev says he’s shocked by the number of dolphin carcasses that have washed up on the shores of his nature reserve in […]

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