As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? “You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis”

U.S. federal government outlays for net interest (12-month rolling sum), 1985-2023. Data are current through August 2023. Data: LSEG Datastream. Graphic: Kripa Jayaram / Reuters

October 29, 2023

As global debt worries mount, is another crisis brewing? “You can take many, many countries today, and you will see that we are not far away from a public finances crisis”

By Yoruk Bahceli, Dhara Ranasinghe, and Maria Martinez 16 October 2023 LONDON (Reuters) – Record debts, high interest rates, the costs of climate change, health, and pension spending as populations age and fractious politics are stoking fears of a financial market crisis in big, developed economies. A surge in government borrowing costs has put high debt in […]

Number of generic extinctions per century among in different classes of vertebrates. The low number of reptiles and amphibia, which underestimate the magnitude of extinction pattern, is probably the result of the lack of information in earlier centuries, where very few species had been described. The dotted line represents the background extinction rate. Graphic: Ceballos and Ehrlich, 2023 / PNAS

September 30, 2023

Study finds human-driven mass extinction is eliminating entire branches of the tree of life – “We’re losing our only known living companions in the entire universe”

By Sean Cummings 18 September 2023 (Stanford News) – The passenger pigeon. The Tasmanian tiger. The Baiji, or Yangtze River dolphin. These rank among the best-known recent victims of what many scientists have declared the sixth mass extinction, as human actions are wiping out vertebrate animal species hundreds of times faster than they would otherwise […]

Map showing global water stress projected to 2050. By 2050, an additional 1 billion people are expected to live with extremely high water stress, even if the world limits global temperature rise to 1.3 degrees C to 2.4 degrees C (2.3 degrees F to 4.3 degrees F) by 2100, an optimistic scenario. Global water demand is projected to increase by 20 percent to 25 percent by 2050, while the number of watersheds facing high year-to-year variability, or less predictable water supplies, is expected to increase by 19 percent. Data: wri.org/aqueduct. Graphic: WRI

August 20, 2023

25 countries, housing one-quarter of the population, face extremely high water stress – By 2050, an additional 1 billion people will live with extremely high water stress

By Samantha Kuzma, Liz Saccoccia, and Marlena Chertock 16 August 2023 (WRI) – New data from WRI’s Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas show that 25 countries — housing one-quarter of the global population — face extremely high water stress each year, regularly using up almost their entire available water supply. And at least 50% of the world’s population […]

Correlation of significant shifts in or appearances of markers between sites documenting the onset of the Anthropocene. Collectively, the 12 reference sites, via analysis across many sites using similar multiple proxies, show the extent to which the proxies at each site cluster at an approximately coincident level around the mid-20th century, consistent with the Great Acceleration Event Array (GAEA) proposed by Waters et al. (2022). This demonstrates the degree to which the primary marker chosen at a site represents the range of critical changes encompassed by that section. Each site team has identified a level where significant changes cluster, these ranging in age between 1945 and 1968 CE, though for most sites the level chosen dates to the 1950s. Graphic: Waters, et al., 2023 / The Anthropocene Review

July 23, 2023

Canadian lake sediments reveal start of Earth’s Anthropocene epoch – “Clearly, the biology of the planet has changed abruptly. We cannot go back to a Holocene state now.”

By David Stanway 11 July 2023 (Reuters) – Sediment deposited at Crawford Lake, a small but deep body of water in Canada’s Ontario province, provides unmistakable evidence that Earth entered a new human-driven geological chapter – the Anthropocene epoch – some seven decades ago, a team of scientists said on Tuesday. The members of the […]

a–f, Fraction of population (%; a–c) and absolute population (billion people; d–f) exposed to unprecedented temperatures (MAT ≥29 °C; a,d), left outside the niche due to temperature change only (b,e,) and left outside the niche due to temperature change and demographic change (c,f) for different SSPs. Calculations are based on MAT averaged over the 20-year intervals and population density distribution at the centre year of the corresponding intervals. Data are presented as mean values with the shaded regions corresponding to the 5th–95th percentiles. Graphic: Lenton, et al., 2023 / Nature Sustainability

May 27, 2023

Current climate policies will leave more than a fifth of humanity exposed to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100 – “For every 0.1°C of warming above present levels, about 140 million more people will be exposed to dangerous heat”

By Alex Morrison 22 May 2023 (University of Exeter) – Current climate policies will leave more than a fifth of humanity exposed to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100, new research suggests. Despite the Paris Agreement pledge to keep global warming well below 2°C (compared to pre-industrial levels), current policies are projected to result in 2.7°C warming by the […]

Percentage of OECD countries experiencing higher-than-average inflation, 1970-2022. The global inflation shock that began in the United States in 2021 and took hold worldwide in 2022 will have powerful economic and political ripple effects in 2023. It will be the principal driver of global recession, add to financial stress, and stoke social discontent and political instability everywhere. Today’s historically high inflation comes from multiple sources. First was the Covid-19 pandemic, which prompted governments to cushion the fall in incomes with extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus at the same time that it disrupted global supply. Then, just as the United States and Europe were coming out of the pandemic thanks to vaccines, China doubled down on its zero-Covid policy, locking down the global economy’s most important manufacturing and shipping hubs. Finally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s sanctions in response put a strain on the global supply of energy, food, and fertilizer. This unprecedented confluence of overlapping shocks pushed inflation to levels most countries hadn’t seen in nearly 50 years. Graphic: Eurasia Group

January 22, 2023

Eurasia Group’s Top Risks for 2023 – “The risks this year are the most dangerous we’ve encountered in the 25 years since we started Eurasia Group”

By Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan 3 January 2023 (Eurasia Group) – Russia has no way to win in Ukraine. The European Union is stronger than ever. NATO rediscovered its reason for being. The G7 is strengthening. Renewables are becoming dirt cheap. American hard power remains unrivaled. Midterms in the United States were decidedly normal […]

Ducks swim through an algae bloom in Santuit Pond in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in July 2018. Photo: Steve Heaslip / The Cape Cod Times / Associated Press

January 2, 2023

A toxic stew on cape cod: Human waste and warming water

By Christopher Flavelle 1 January 2023 MASHPEE, Massachusetts (The New York Times) – Ashley K. Fisher walked to the edge of the boat, pulled on a pair of thick black waders, and jumped into the river to search for the dead. She soon found them: the encrusted remains of ribbed mussels, choked in gray-black goo […]

Global human population, 1700-2022. On 15 November 2022, the world’s population was estimated to reach 8 billion people, having grown by 1 billion since 2010. This is a remarkable milestone given that the human population numbered under 1 billion for millennia until around 1800, and that it took more than 100 years to grow from 1 to 2 billion. By comparison, the increase of the world’s population over the last century has been quite rapid. Despite a gradual slowing in the pace of growth, the global population is projected to surpass 9 billion around 2037 and 10 billion around 2058. Graphic: UN DESA

November 19, 2022

Global human population hits 8 billion – “We are already overstretching what we have: the housing, roads, the hospitals, schools. Everything is overstretched.”

By Dan Ikpoyi and Chinedu Asadu 15 November 2022 LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) – The world’s population will likely hit an estimated 8 billion people on Tuesday, according to a United Nations projection, with much of the growth coming from developing nations in Africa. Among them is Nigeria, where resources are already stretched to the limit. More than […]

Components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties, 1960-2021 and projected to 2022. Components are presented individually for (a) fossil CO2 and cement carbonation emissions (EFOS), (b) growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration (GATM), (c) emissions from land-use change (ELUC), (d) the land CO2 sink (SLAND), (e) the ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN), and (f) the budget imbalance that is not accounted for by the other terms. Positive values of SLAND and SOCEAN represent a flux from the atmosphere to land or the ocean. All data are in GtC yr−1 with the uncertainty bounds representing ±1 standard deviation in shaded colour. Data sources are as in Fig. 3. The red dots indicate our projections for the year 2022, and the red error bars the uncertainty in the projections. Graphic: Friedlingstein, et al., 2022 / Earth System Science Data

November 19, 2022

Global Carbon Budget 2022: Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels – No sign of decrease in global CO2 emissions – “This year we see yet another rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, when we need a rapid decline”

11 November 2022 (Global Carbon Project) – Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels – with no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the Global Carbon Project science team (Global Carbon Budget 2022). If current emissions levels persist, there is now a 50% chance […]

Absolute change in days of crop growth duration, 1981-2021, compared to a 1981-2010 baseline, globally and by WHO region. Maize, rice, soybean, spring wheat, and winter wheat are shown. Relative to 1981-2010, higher temperatures in 2021 shortened crop growth seasons globally by 9.3 days for maize, 1.7 days for rice and 6 days for winter and spring wheat, and heatwave days in 2020 were associated with 98 million more people reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Graphic: The Lancet

November 13, 2022

8 billion people: Four ways climate change and population growth combine to threaten public health, with global consequences

By Maureen Lichtveld 10 November 2022 (The Conversation) – Will we have enough food for a growing global population? How will we take care of more people in the next pandemic? What will heat do to millions with hypertension? Will countries wage water wars because of increasing droughts? These risks all have three things in […]

Desdemona Despair

Tag: population