Kilimanjaro’s and Africa’s last glaciers to go by 2050, says UN – “What is quite unprecedented in the historical record is how quickly this is happening”

Landsat images from 21 February 2000 (left) and 27 July 2019 (right) illustrating glacier retreat on top of Mount Kilimanjaro (United Republic of Tanzania). Photo: U.S. Geological Survey

By Patrick Hughes
3 November 2022

(BBC News) – Glaciers across the globe – including the last ones in Africa – will be unavoidably lost by 2050 due to climate change, the UN says in a report [UNESCO finds that some iconic World Heritage glaciers will disappear by 2050 –Des].

Glaciers in a third of UN World Heritage sites will melt within three decades, a UNESCO report found.

Mount Kilimanjaro’s last glaciers will vanish as will glaciers in the Alps and Yosemite National Park in the US.

They will melt regardless of the world’s actions to combat climate change, the authors say.

The report, which makes projections based on satellite data, comes as world leaders prepare to meet in Egypt for next week’s COP27 climate change conference.

About 18,600 glaciers have been identified across 50 UN World Heritage sites. They represent almost 10% of the Earth’s glacierised area and include renowned tourist spots and places sacred to local populations.

The retreat and disappearance of glaciers was “among the most dramatic evidence that Earth’s climate is warming”, the report said.

“We hope we might be wrong, but this is the hard science,” said UNESCO project officer Tales Carvalho Resende, one of the authors. “Glaciers are one of the valuable indicators of climate change, because they’re visible. This is something we can really see happening.”

Landsat images from 1999, 2016, and 2021 illustrating both the retreat and the separation of the Upsala Glacier (U) from Bertacchi Glacier (B) in Los Glaciares National Park (Argentina). Cono Glacier (C) is the next tributary to the north. Photo: AGU Blogosphere

The remaining glaciers in the other two thirds of UN World Heritage sites could be saved, but only if the world limits global warming to 1.5C, the authors say. Another UN report last week found that the world currently had “no credible pathway” to achieve that.

The projections build upon a previous report which used models to compute how World Heritage site glaciers would change over time.

“What is quite unprecedented in the historical record is how quickly this is happening,” said Beata Csatho, a glaciologist from the University of Buffalo, who was not involved in the research.

“In the middle of the 1900s, glaciers were quite stable,” she said. “Then there is this incredibly fast retreat.”

Largest net ice mass losses in World Heritage sites from 2000 to 2020 and equivalent sea-level rise. Net ice mass loss in World Heritage sites over those two decades occurred in all regions across the world and was mainly concentrated in the Arctic region (glaciers peripherical to the Greenland ice sheet and Iceland) and North America. Around two-thirds of the World Heritage network’s ice mass loss occurred in glaciers outside the polar ice sheets. The site with the largest net ice mass loss from 2000 to 2020 was Kluane / Wrangell-St. Elias / Glacier Bay / Tatshenshini-Alsek (Canada, United States of America) (487 Gt), followed by Ilulissat Icefjord (Denmark) (350 Gt), Vatnajökull National Park – Dynamic Nature of Fire and Ice (Iceland) (132 Gt), Los Glaciares National Park (Argentina) (88 Gt) and Aasivissuit – Nipisat (Denmark) (39 Gt). These five sites together account for around 95 percent of the World Heritage network’s total ice mass loss. Many sites that made a limited contribution to the World Heritage’s overall total ice loss still lost a considerable amount of their glacier mass. At least one-fifth of all sites lost more than 25 percent of their glacier mass in just 20 years. Graphic: UNESCO.

World Heritage sites listed as having glaciers that will disappear by 2050 are:

Hyrcanian Forests (Iran)
Durmitor National Park (Montenegro)
Virunga National Park (Democratic Republic of the Congo)
Huanlong Scenic and Historic Interest Area (China)
Yellowstone National Park (United States of America)
Mount Kenya National Park/Natural Forest (Kenya)
Pyrenees Mont Perdu (France, Spain)
Rwenzori Mountains National Park (Uganda)
Putorana Plateau (Russia)
Swiss Tectonic Arena Sardona (Switzerland)
Nahanni National Park (Canada)
Lorentz National Park (Indonesia)
Natural System of Wrangel Island Reserve (Russia)
Kilimanjaro National Park (Tanzania)
Yosemite National Park (United States of America)
The Dolomites (Italy)
Virgin Komi Forests (Russia)

The report said that ice loss in World Heritage sites may have caused up to 4.5% of the observed global sea level rise between 2000 and 2020. These glaciers lose 58 billion tonnes of ice every year – equivalent to the total annual volume of water used in France and Spain put together. [more]

Climate change: Kilimanjaro’s and Africa’s last glaciers to go by 2050, says UN

Copernicus Sentinel-2 image from 29 April 2019 of Jakobshavn Isbræ Glacier in Ilulissat Icefjord (Denmark). The red arrow shows the glacier’s terminus position in 2000, the orange arrow the 2010 position and the yellow arrow the 2019 position. Photo: Adapted from ESA

UNESCO finds that some iconic World Heritage glaciers will disappear by 2050

3 November 2022 (UNESCO) – 50 UNESCO World Heritage sites are home to glaciers (A total of 18,600 glaciers have been identified in these 50 sites, covering around 66,000 km2), representing almost 10% of the Earth’s total glacierized area. They include the highest (next to Mt. Everest), the longest (in Alaska), and the last remaining glaciers in Africa, amongst others, giving a representative overview of the general situation of glaciers in the world.

But a new study by UNESCO, in partnership with IUCN, shows these glaciers have been retreating at an accelerated rate since 2000 due to CO₂ emissions, which are warming temperatures. They are currently losing 58 billion tons of ice every year – equivalent to the combined annual water use of France and Spain– and are responsible for nearly 5% of observed global sea-level rise.

Only one effective solution: quickly reduce CO₂ emissions

The report concludes that glaciers in a third of the 50 World Heritage sites are condemned to disappear by 2050, regardless of efforts to limit temperature increases. But it is still possible to save the glaciers in the remaining two thirds of sites if the rise in temperatures does not exceed 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period.

This report is a call to action. Only a rapid reduction in our CO₂ emissions levels can save glaciers and the exceptional biodiversity that depends on them. COP27 will have a crucial role to help find solutions to this issue. UNESCO is determined to support states in pursuing this goal.

In addition to drastically reduced carbon emissions, UNESCO is advocating for the creation of an international fund for glacier monitoring and preservation. Such a fund would support comprehensive research, promote exchange networks between all stakeholders and implement early warning and disaster risk reduction measures.

Half of humanity depends directly or indirectly on glaciers as their water source for domestic use, agriculture, and power. Glaciers are also pillars of biodiversity, feeding many ecosystems.

When glaciers melt rapidly, millions of people face water scarcity and the increased risk of natural disasters such as flooding, and millions more may be displaced by the resulting rise in sea levels. This study highlights the urgent need to cut greenhouse gas emissions and invest in Nature-based Solutions, which can help mitigate climate change and allow people to better adapt to its impacts.

Glacier ice losses relative to 2000 in World Heritage sites. Graphic: UNESCO

Examples of endangered glaciers by region

Africa:

According to available data, glaciers in all World Heritage sites in Africa will very likely be gone by 2050, incl. Kilimanjaro National Park and Mount Kenya

Asia:

Glaciers in Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan Protected Areas (China) – #1 highest mass loss relative to 2000 (57.2%) and also the fastest melting glacier on the List
Glaciers in Western Tien-Shan (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan) have shrunk by 27% since 2000

Europe:

Glaciers in Pyrenees Mont Perdu (France, Spain) – very likely to disappear by 2050
Glaciers in The Dolomites (Italy) – very likely to disappear by 2050

Latin America:

Glaciers in Los Alerces National Park (Argentina) – #2 highest mass loss relative to 2000 (45.6%)
Glaciers in Huascaran National Park (Peru) have shrunk by 15% since 2000

North America:

Glacierized patches in Yellowstone National Park (United States of America) – very likely to disappear by 2050
Glaciers in Yosemite National Park (United States of America) – very likely to disappear by 2050
Glaciers in Waterton Glacier International Peace Park (Canada, United States of America) have lost 26.5% of their volume in 20 years

Oceania:

Glaciers in Te Wahipounamu – South West New Zealand (New Zealand) have lost almost 20% of their volume since 2000

UNESCO thanks IUCN, ETH Zurich, the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), and the Space Geophysics and Oceanography Studies Laboratory (LEGOS) of the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) for their contribution to this study.

Full UNESCO report