U.S. energy projections to 2050: Fossil fuels still most-consumed energy sources through 2050 – Energy consumption increases as population and economic growth outweigh efficiency gains – Energy‐related CO2 emissions dip through 2035 but climb later

3 March 2022 (EIA) – Key takeaways from the Reference case and side cases:

Motor gasoline remains the most prevalent transportation fuel despite electric vehicles gaining market share
Energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions dip through 2035 before climbing later in the projection years
Energy consumption increases through 2050 as population and economic growth outweighs efficiency gains
Electricity continues to be the fastest-growing energy source in buildings, with renewables and natural gas providing most of the incremental electricity supply

Electricity demand grows slowly across the projection period, which increases competition among fuels
Renewable electricity generation increases more rapidly than overall electricity demand through 2050
Battery storage complements growth in renewables generation and reduces natural gas-fired and oil-fired generation during peak hours
As coal and nuclear generating capacity retire, new capacity additions come largely from wind and solar technologies

U.S. production of natural gas and petroleum and other liquids rises amid growing demand for exports and industrial uses
Driven by rising prices, U.S. crude oil production in the Reference case returns to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 and stabilizes over the long term
Refinery closures lower domestic crude oil distillation operating capacity, but refinery utilization rates remain flat over the long term
Consumption of renewable diesel increases as a share of the domestic fuel mix

Projections in the Reference case of our Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO2022) are not
predictions of what will happen, but rather, they are modeled projections of what may happen
given certain assumptions and methodologies. The Reference case serves as a baseline for
comparison between side cases that explain alternative trends. By varying Reference case
assumptions and methodologies in side cases, AEO2022 can illustrate important factors in future
energy production and use in the United States.
Energy market projections are uncertain because we cannot foresee with certainty many of the
events that shape energy markets—as well as future developments in technologies,
demographics, and resources. To illustrate the importance of key assumptions, AEO2022
includes a baseline Reference case and several side cases that systematically vary important
underlying assumptions.
We developed AEO2022 by using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), an integrated
model that captures interactions of economic changes and energy supply, demand, and prices.
We publish the AEO2022 to satisfy the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977, which
requires the EIA Administrator to prepare annual reports on trends and projections for energy
use and supply.

The AEO2022 Reference case represents our assessment of how U.S. and world energy markets
would operate through 2050. Our key assumptions in the Reference case provides a baseline for
exploring long‐term trends, based on current laws and regulations as of November 2021. The
current laws and regulations included in the AEO and a paper addressing the Bipartisan
Infrastructure Law are available on the AEO website.
We based the economic and demographic trends reflected in the Reference case on the current
views of leading economic forecasters and demographers. For example, the Reference case
projection assumes improvement in known energy production, delivery, and consumption
technologies.
The Reference case serves as the benchmark to compare with alternative policy‐based cases, so
in general, it assumes that current laws and regulations that affect the energy sector, including
laws that have end dates, remain unchanged throughout the projection period. [more]

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