Antarctica – Desdemona Despair

Graph showing temperatures and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide over the past 66 million years. Paleo-CO2 (including 95 percent credible intervals) is superimposed on the GMST trend over the past 66 million years. Age and CO2 labels highlight notable climate extrema and transitions as described in the text. Graphic: CenCO2PIP, Science 2023

December 25, 2023

A new 66 million-year history of carbon dioxide offers little comfort for today – “Regardless of exactly how many degrees the temperature changes, it’s clear we have already brought the planet into a range of conditions never seen by our species”

By Kevin Krajick 7 December 2023 (Columbia Climate School) – A massive new review of ancient atmospheric carbon-dioxide levels and corresponding temperatures lays out a daunting picture of where the Earth’s climate may be headed. The study covers geologic records spanning the past 66 million years, putting present-day concentrations into context with deep time. Among […]

Map of ensemble mean trends in ocean temperature and ice-shelf basal melting in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) for the Paris 2°C scenario. Temperature is averaged over the depth range 200–700 m. Trends are calculated at each point using annually averaged fields from 2006–2100. White regions indicate no significant trend. The Amundsen Sea region visualized here (latitude–longitude projection) is outlined in red in the inset map of Antarctica (polar stereographic projection). The black dashed line shows the 1,750 m depth contour of the continental shelf break and the blue dashed line outlines the continental shelf region used for analysis. Labels denote ice shelves (G, Getz; D, Dotson; Cr, Crosson; T, Thwaites; P, Pine Island; Co, Cosgrove; A, Abbot). Graphic: Naughten, et al., 2023 / Nature

November 10, 2023

The climate contradiction that will sink us – “We already have a refugee crisis; I shudder to think what would happen if everyone living within two meters of sea level would be displaced.”

By Zoë Schlanger 10 November 2023 (The Atlantic) – You’d be forgiven for thinking that the fight against climate change is finally going well. The clean-energy revolution is well under way and exceeding expectations. Solar is set to become the cheapest form of energy in most places by 2030, and the remarkable efficiency of heat pumps is driving their own uptake […]

The calving front of the Thwaites Glacier in the Amundsen Sea in 2019, viewed from the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer. Photo: Elizabeth Rush

September 10, 2023

We reached the glacier just as it collapsed – The world’s widest glacier is melting and changing predictions about our planet’s future – “It looks nearly as dramatic as the Larsen B collapse”

By Elizabeth Rush 13 August 2023 (The Atlantic) – Out on the bow of the R/V Nathaniel B. Palmer, the air is dense and almost warm. We have punched through miles of Antarctic ice floes to reach the Amundsen Sea’s foggy interior. I want to honor the remaining distance between us and Thwaites Glacier’s calving […]

The location of climate tipping elements in the cryosphere (blue), biosphere (green) and ocean/atmosphere (orange), and global warming levels their tipping points will likely be triggered at 1.5°C. Researchers see signs of destabilisation already in parts of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, in permafrost regions, the Amazon rainforest, and potentially the Atlantic overturning circulation as well. Graphic: Earth Commission / Globaïa

August 21, 2023

Climate collapse could happen fast – “For a long time, we were within the range of normal. And now we’re really not. And it has happened fast enough that people have a memory of it happening.”

By Lois Parshley 20 July 2023 (The Atlantic) – Ever since some of the earliest projections of climate change were made back in the 1970s, they have been remarkably accurate at predicting the rate at which global temperatures would rise. For decades, climate change has proceeded at roughly the expected pace, says David Armstrong McKay, a […]

a, Volume transport. Black symbols show estimates ± calculated total uncertainty made using joint mooring-model-hydrographic method (square/triangle/circle symbols, 84° E/140° E/170° E; equation (2), Extended Data Fig. 7 and Supplementary Section 2). White symbols show comparative estimates from other studies11,24,47,48,49,50 (Supplementary Table 3). Blue line, total volume transport for time periods of 1994–1996, 2007–2011 and 2016–2018, which estimates the strength of the lower limb of overturning circulation in the Australian Antarctic Basin (shading shows total error of 1.2 Sv; Supplementary Table 2). b, Oxygen transport. Black line, total oxygen transport that estimates abyssal ventilation ± total uncertainty of 290 Sv mol kg−1 (equation (3)). c, Comparison of lower limb of overturning circulation and shelf salinities from a site of DSW formation in Ross Sea (Terra Nova Bay; refs. 12,13,35). Dotted blue arrows show declining trend in overturning for 1994–2009 and 1994–2017 that have uncertainties of ±0.5 Sv decade−1. Graphic: Gunn, et al., 2023 / Nature Climate Change

May 29, 2023

Deep ocean currents around Antarctica headed for collapse – “Such profound changes to the ocean’s overturning of heat, freshwater, oxygen, carbon, and nutrients will have a significant adverse impact on the oceans for centuries to come”

By Kathy Gunn, Matthew England, and Steve Rintoul 25 May 2023 (The Conversation) – Antarctica sets the stage for the world’s greatest waterfall. The action takes place beneath the surface of the ocean. Here, trillions of tonnes of cold, dense, oxygen-rich water cascade off the continental shelf and sink to great depths. This Antarctic “bottom […]

Map showing significant economic loss events in 2022. Direct economic losses resulting from natural disasters in 2022 are estimated at $313 billion. This is close to the 21st century average, after adjusting actual incurred damage to today’s dollars using the U.S. Consumer Price Index. Though 2022 was far from record-breaking in terms of overall losses, it saw many impactful and costly events across the globe. Visualizing the geographic distribution of 2022 events allows for distinguishing certain patterns, including higher frequency of medium-sized Severe Convective Storm (SCS) events in the U.S. and Europe, and the prevalence of flooding events in Africa, Southeast Asia and Oceania. The map primarily shows the economic impact, which to some extent correlates with concentration of wealth — this is not a result of a reporting bias. What this map does not highlight is the humanitarian crises and displaced communities, as many events with significant human impacts do not necessarily translate into a high financial toll in terms of direct damage. Note that significant price inflation throughout the year already resulted in notable increases of per-event losses. Graphic: Aon

January 25, 2023

Aon: Global insured losses from natural disasters exceeded $130 billion In 2022, driven by second-costliest event on record – More than 19,000 heat-related deaths in Europe

CHICAGO, 25 January 2023 (PRNewswire) – Aon plc (NYSE: AON), a leading global professional services firm, today published its 2023 Weather, Climate and Catastrophe Insight report, which identifies global natural disaster and climate trends to help make better decisions to manage volatility and enhance global resilience. The report reveals that natural disasters caused a $313 billion global economic loss […]

September 25, 2022

World at risk of passing multiple climate tipping points above 1.5°C global warming

8 September 2022 (Stockholm Resilience Centre) – Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks […]

Greenland ice sheet flow sectors, individual catchments and peripheral ice caps with regional correspondence between annual values of mass balance and accumulation area ratio (AAR). The whiskers and ± quantities indicate ensemble single s.d. The ice sector outlines are after Morlighem, et al., 2017. Graphic: Box, et al., 2022 / Nature Climate Change

September 18, 2022

Glaciers and “zombie ice”: The planet is melting at both poles, research finds – “We are already into dangerous levels of greenhouse gases that will have consequences far beyond 10 inches of sea level rise”

By Matthew Rozsa 7 September 2022 (Salon) – That sea levels will rise as Earth’s ice melts is a prophecy that began to come true long ago, at the dawn of industrial civilization when humans began pumping vast amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Yet the timeline for sea level rise is not yet fully understood, nor do we really […]

Map of Thwaites Glacier shown in Landsat 8 satellite imagery collected in February 2019. The track of the mission of the autonomous underwater vehicle is shown in orange. Changes in grounding line positions of Thwaites Glacier in the recent past shown by colored lines. Graphic: Alastair Graham / University of South Florida

September 7, 2022

Antarctica “doomsday glacier” could raise global sea levels by 10 feet – “Thwaites is really holding on today by its fingernails”

By Li Cohen 6 September 2022 (CBS News) – The loss of a glacier the size of Florida in Antarctica could wreak havoc on the world as scientists expect it would raise global sea levels up to 10 feet. It’s already melting at a fast rate — and scientists say its collapse may only rapidly […]

Changes in global average sea level (background map) and local sea level (dots) between 1993 and 2021. In the global ocean, sea level has risen nearly everywhere (blue). Coastal areas where sea level has fallen (brown) are places where the land is rising as it rebounds from being compressed by ice sheets and glaciers during the last ice age. NOAA Climate.gov map, based on data from University of Hawaii Sea Level Center. Graphic: NOAA

September 4, 2022

American Meteorological Society report: Record-high greenhouse gases and sea levels in 2021 – Ocean heat content highest on record

31 August 2022 (NOAA) – Greenhouse gas concentrations, global sea levels and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2021, according to the 32nd annual State of the Climate report. The international annual review of the world’s climate, led by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and published by the Bulletin of the […]