Global excess and reported COVID-19 deaths and death rates per 100,000 population, January 2020-January 2022. (a) Cumulative global excess death estimates and the cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths by month from January 2020 to December 2021. (b) Global excess death rates per 100,000 population and the reported COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 population, also by month, from January 2020 to December 2021. On both plots, the central lines of the excess mortality series show the mean estimates, and the shaded regions indicate the 95 percent uncertainty intervals. Graphic: Msemburi, et al., 2022 / Nature
Global excess and reported COVID-19 deaths and death rates per 100,000 population, January 2020-January 2022. (a) Cumulative global excess death estimates and the cumulative reported COVID-19 deaths by month from January 2020 to December 2021. (b) Global excess death rates per 100,000 population and the reported COVID-19 death rates per 100,000 population, also by month, from January 2020 to December 2021. On both plots, the central lines of the excess mortality series show the mean estimates, and the shaded regions indicate the 95 percent uncertainty intervals. Graphic: Msemburi, et al., 2022 / Nature

By Robert Hart
14 December 2022

(Forbes) – The Covid-19 pandemic may have claimed nearly 15 million around the world in 2020 and 2021, according to World Health Organization estimates published in Nature on Wednesday, almost three times what was reported in official records and underscoring the devastating and far-reaching impact of the disease as countries strive to return to normal.

Key facts

  • There were approximately 14.8 million deaths associated with Covid-19 around the world in 2020 and 2021, according to new WHO estimates, more than 2.7 times official reports of 5.4 million.
  • An estimated 4.47 million of these excess deaths were in 2020 and 10.38 million were in 2021, the researchers said.
  • The higher figure is based on an estimate of “excess deaths” or “excess mortality” during the first two years of the pandemic, a measurement comparing the difference between the total number of deaths observed and the number expected if the pandemic had not occurred.
  • The WHO researchers said looking at excess deaths offers a more complete understanding of the pandemic’s death toll than official statistics as it can account for issues like a lack of testing capacity, different standards for certifying Covid deaths and inconsistent, incomplete or entirely absent statistics that can muddy official records, as well as deaths indirectly linked to the pandemic from issues like wider disruptions to health services.
  • In absolute terms, India had far more excess deaths linked to the pandemic than any other country—an estimated 4.7 million—sitting at around 10 times the official toll reported by the Indian government.
  • India was followed by Russia (1.1 million), Indonesia (1 million) and the U.S. (932,000), which respectively had the second, third and fourth highest number of excess deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic according to the WHO estimates.

What we don’t know

Precise estimates on deaths due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As the researchers note, official statistics give an incomplete and likely much lower gauge of pandemic deaths. Many of the issues that plague official pandemic death counts also muddy efforts to calculate excess deaths and the researchers said around half of countries did not have granular, complete death data available. The assumptions used to fill these gaps can lead to different estimates and other researchers have arrived at different figures to the WHO team. For the same time period, a consortium of health researchers estimated 18.2 million excess deaths and the Economist magazine estimated around 16 million. [more]

Global Covid Death Toll May Be Nearly Three Times Higher—15 Million—Than Official Records, WHO Says

The 25 countries with the highest total estimated excess deaths between January 2020 and December 2021. The 20 countries with the highest excess estimates represent approximately half (48.9 percent) the global population and account for over 80 percent of the estimated global excess deaths for the January 2020 to December 2021 period. These countries are (in alphabetical order) Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, the Russian Federation, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Ukraine and the United States of America. There are an estimated 4.74 million (UI 3.31 to 6.45 million) excess deaths for India alone in the period January 2020 to December 2021, followed by 1.07 million (UI 1.05 to 1.10 million) excess deaths in the Russian Federation, 1.03 million (UI 0.75 to 1.29 million) excess deaths in Indonesia and 932K (UI 887K to 978K) excess deaths in the United States of America. The red dots show the total reported COVID-19 death numbers. The purple dots show the mean total estimated excess death numbers with the width of the bars showing the 95 percent uncertainty intervals. Graphic: Msemburi, et al., 2022 / Nature
The 25 countries with the highest total estimated excess deaths between January 2020 and December 2021. The 20 countries with the highest excess estimates represent approximately half (48.9 percent) the global population and account for over 80 percent of the estimated global excess deaths for the January 2020 to December 2021 period. These countries are (in alphabetical order) Bangladesh, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, the Russian Federation, South Africa, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Ukraine and the United States of America. There are an estimated 4.74 million (UI 3.31 to 6.45 million) excess deaths for India alone in the period January 2020 to December 2021, followed by 1.07 million (UI 1.05 to 1.10 million) excess deaths in the Russian Federation, 1.03 million (UI 0.75 to 1.29 million) excess deaths in Indonesia and 932K (UI 887K to 978K) excess deaths in the United States of America. The red dots show the total reported COVID-19 death numbers. The purple dots show the mean total estimated excess death numbers with the width of the bars showing the 95 percent uncertainty intervals. Graphic: Msemburi, et al., 2022 / Nature

The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization has a mandate to compile and disseminate statistics on mortality, and we have been tracking the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic since the beginning of 20201. Reported statistics on COVID-19 mortality are problematic for many countries owing to variations in testing access, differential diagnostic capacity and inconsistent certification of COVID-19 as cause of death. Beyond what is directly attributable to it, the pandemic has caused extensive collateral damage that has led to losses of lives and livelihoods. Here we report a comprehensive and consistent measurement of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic by estimating excess deaths, by month, for 2020 and 2021. We predict the pandemic period all-cause deaths in locations lacking complete reported data using an overdispersed Poisson count framework that applies Bayesian inference techniques to quantify uncertainty. We estimate 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period. There are wide variations in the excess death estimates across the six World Health Organization regions. We describe the data and methods used to generate these estimates and highlight the need for better reporting where gaps persist. We discuss various summary measures, and the hazards of ranking countries’ epidemic responses.

The WHO estimates of excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic