By Roger Harrabin
19 January 2011 It is virtually impossible for the world to keep within the CO2 limits defined as safe for the climate, according to the chief economist of the International Energy Agency think tank. Dr Fatih Birol told an audience in London that key nations were not prepared to take the steps necessary to cut carbon growth. He also applauded the UK’s high fuel taxes, and warned that the shale gas revolution would put pressure on the development of renewable energy sources worldwide. But it was his comments on climate change that seemed to cause the biggest buzz among the audience that packed a huge lecture theatre at Imperial College London. The world’s governments at the recent climate conference in Cancun agreed that greenhouse gases should be kept within the limit associated by scientists with a 2°C temperature rise. But as progress in cutting emissions has crawled along in recent years that public position has looked like an increasingly unrealistic facade. And there appeared widespread relief that Dr Birol said the unsayable – that peaking emissions by 2020 was virtually impossible, and that in those circumstances we could “kiss goodbye” to the 2°C target. “We would need to double decarbonisation efforts, then double them again to keep emissions (of CO2 and equivalent gases) within 450 parts per million,” he said. “The bulk of the effort needs to take place in countries where climate change is not high on the policy agenda. We have to be realistic.” Dr Birol referred to the debate in Europe as to whether the EU would cut emissions by 20% or 30% by 2020 against 1990 levels. The difference between these two targets, he said, was equivalent to just two weeks of China’s emissions. He said the West could not blame China because per capita emissions and car ownership there were still comparatively very low and he urged the UK and EU continue with “climate leadership”. Dr Birol also warned that efforts to tackle climate change through renewable energy were under threat from the world revolution in unconventional gas sources. He said the shale gas boom in the US has already led to a gas rush which had contributed to a 50% drop in investment in renewable energy. …
Harrabin’s Notes: Mission impossible?
