Labor force participation impacts of health-related absences event study. The figure plots coefficient estimates βk from Equation 1, which represents the effect of a health-related absence during the pandemic on the probability of labor force participation k months before or after the absence. The blue, orange, and gray lines respectively plot estimates without demographic controls, with demographic controls, and with controls for demographics and labor market status. Gaps between months 3 and 9 are due to sample rotation. The color bands depict pointwise 95-percent confidence intervals. Standard errors are clustered at the worker level. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER
Labor force participation impacts of health-related absences event study. The figure plots coefficient estimates βk from Equation 1, which represents the effect of a health-related absence during the pandemic on the probability of labor force participation k months before or after the absence. The blue, orange, and gray lines respectively plot estimates without demographic controls, with demographic controls, and with controls for demographics and labor market status. Gaps between months 3 and 9 are due to sample rotation. The color bands depict pointwise 95-percent confidence intervals. Standard errors are clustered at the worker level. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER

By Ciara Linnane
14 September 2022

(MarketWatch) – Some 500,000 workers have permanently disappeared from the U.S. workforce because of long COVID, according to a new report from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The report found that most patients who have suffered the lingering effects of the virus for months after infection moved straight from illness to retirement, based on federal and state level data on cases and deaths.

“Many who fall ill but survive COVID-19 suffer from enduring health problems,” the authors wrote. About 500,000 adults “are neither working nor actively looking for work due to the persistent effects of Covid-19 illnesses.”

Health-related absences versus COVID-19 illnesses, 2010-2022. Covid-19 illnesses have likely become, over the last two years, an important contributor to the net change in the participation rate. By June 2022, Covid-19 illnesses reduced the participation rate by 0.18 percentage points, with a range of 0.13 to 0.22 percentage points. These reductions in the participation rate imply that approximately 500,000 adults are neither working nor actively looking for work due to the persistent effects of Covid-19 illnesses, with a range of 340,000 to 590,000 adults. This point-in-time participation-rate loss is near the steady-state loss associated with the 2021-average rate of health-related absences. That is, if the health-related absence rate remains near its 2021 level, and if the impacts of Covid-19 absences are unchanged, then our estimates suggest the participation rate will be persistently reduced by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER
Health-related absences versus COVID-19 illnesses, 2010-2022. Covid-19 illnesses have likely become, over the last two years, an important contributor to the net change in the participation rate. By June 2022, Covid-19 illnesses reduced the participation rate by 0.18 percentage points, with a range of 0.13 to 0.22 percentage points. These reductions in the participation rate imply that approximately 500,000 adults are neither working nor actively looking for work due to the persistent effects of Covid-19 illnesses, with a range of 340,000 to 590,000 adults. This point-in-time participation-rate loss is near the steady-state loss associated with the 2021-average rate of health-related absences. That is, if the health-related absence rate remains near its 2021 level, and if the impacts of Covid-19 absences are unchanged, then our estimates suggest the participation rate will be persistently reduced by approximately 0.2 percentage points. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER

A recent report from the Brookings Institution found that as many as 4 million are not working as they struggle with COVID symptoms. U.S. known cases of COVID are continuing to ease and now stand at their lowest level since early May, although the true tally is likely higher given how many people are testing at home, where the data are not being collected.

Effects of Health-Related Absences on Workers. This figure displays effects of health-related absences at one and twelve months after the absence. All panels estimate the event-study specification. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER
Effects of Health-Related Absences on Workers. This figure displays effects of health-related absences at one and twelve months after the absence. All panels estimate the event-study specification. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER

The daily average for new cases stood at 64,598 on Tuesday, according to a New York Times tracker, down 29% from two weeks ago. The daily average for hospitalizations was down 10% at 34,076 while the daily average for deaths is down 8% to 437.

Globally, the confirmed case tally rose above 609.8 million on Wednesday, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins, while the death toll is above 6.51 million with the U.S. leading the world with 95.4 million cases and 1,051,303 deaths.

Coronavirus tally: Study finds some 500,000 people have disappeared from U.S. workforce due to long COVID

Aggregate Flows from Health-Related Absence into Nonparticipation, 2016-2022. The figure displays actual and predicted rates of nonparticipation following health-related absences per 10,000 people working one month ago or 12 months ago (“HRA-to-NILF” flows). Predicted rates of health-related nonparticipation are calculated using the rate of health-related absences and our event-study estimates of the effect of a health-related absence. All lines are adjusted for seasonality using pre-pandemic month fixed effects. Vertical lines identify when flows could be affected by the pandemic. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER
Aggregate Flows from Health-Related Absence into Nonparticipation, 2016-2022. The figure displays actual and predicted rates of nonparticipation following health-related absences per 10,000 people working one month ago or 12 months ago (“HRA-to-NILF” flows). Predicted rates of health-related nonparticipation are calculated using the rate of health-related absences and our event-study estimates of the effect of a health-related absence. All lines are adjusted for seasonality using pre-pandemic month fixed effects. Vertical lines identify when flows could be affected by the pandemic. Graphic: Goda and Soltas, 2022 / NBER

The Impacts of Covid-19 Illnesses on Workers

ABSTRACT: We show that Covid-19 illnesses persistently reduce labor supply. Using an event study, we
estimate that workers with week-long Covid-19 work absences are 7 percentage points less likely
to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a
week of work for health reasons. Our estimates suggest Covid-19 illnesses have reduced the U.S.
labor force by approximately 500,000 people (0.2 percent of adults) and imply an average
forgone earnings per Covid-19 absence of at least $9,000, about 90 percent of which reflects lost
labor supply beyond the initial absence week.

The Impacts of Covid-19 Illnesses on Workers