Asia coal imports, 1980-2009. EIA via Western Organization of Resource Councils

Today, close to 99% of the coal mined in the Powder River Basin is consumed in domestic U.S. coal markets. However, a depressed domestic market and increased foreign demand, especially from the Pacific Rim, has piqued the interest of the largest U.S. coal producers in potential export markets. Chris Ruppel, an energy analyst at Execution, a brokerage and research firm, recently predicted, “As U.S. coal demand is constrained because of increasing environmental regulation, coal production in the United States will increasingly go toward overseas buyers.” According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total U.S. exports of coal to Asia grew 176% from 2009 to 2010 to 17.9 million short tons, 4.9 of which was steam coal as global supplies of thermal coal tightened. Unless strict limits on greenhouse gas emissions are put in place, growth in Asian coal demand is expected to increase world coal consumption by 2030. The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts that nearly 90% of that increased consumption will be attributed to China. Investors are aware that China relies on coal for most of its energy needs, but is burning more than it can produce. According to the Beijing-based General Administration of Customs, China’s 2009 coal imports more than tripled from the previous year’s to 125.8 million tons.

Exporting Powder River Basin Coal: Risks and Costs