Australia floods: Why were we so surprised?
Meteorologists warned Australians six months ago to prepare for a soaking. And nobody did a thing … 
By Germaine Greer, The Guardian
Saturday 15 January 2011 What’s going on in Australia is rain. British people might think that they’re rain experts. Truth is that they hardly know what rain is. The kind of cold angel sweat that wets British windscreens isn’t proper rain. For weeks now rain has been drumming in my ears, leaping off my corrugated steel roof, frothing through the rocks, spouting off the trees, and running, running, running past my house and down into the gully, into the little creek, into the bigger creek, and on to the Nerang river and out to sea at Southport. We’ve had more than 350mm in the last four days. My creek is running so high and so fast that I can’t get out and my workforce can’t get in. I can’t even go for a walk under the dripping trees, because I’ll come back festooned with leeches. In these conditions you can end up with a leech in your eye, and there’s no one here to help get it out. The rain comes in pulses. When the noise abates, momentarily, I can see Mount Hobwee through veils of wet mist, and then I hear the advancing roar of the next pulse, and everything shuts down again. Behind my house a white cataract is charging down the gully through the rocks. When I’m in bed I can feel the thudding of its raw power through my bones. So, yeah, as Australians say, the problem is rain. The ground is swollen with months of it. The new downpours have nowhere to go but sideways, across the vast floodplains of this ancient continent. We all learned the poem at school, about how ours is “a sunburnt country … of droughts and flooding rains”. Groggy TV presenters who have been on extended shifts, talking floods for endless hours, will repeat the mantra, so hard is it wired into the heads of Australian kids. And yet we still don’t get it. After 10 years of drought, we are having the inevitable flooding rains. The pattern is repeated regularly and yet Australians are still taken by surprise. The meteorologists will tell you that the current deluge is a product of La Niña. At fairly regular intervals, atmospheric pressure on the western side of the Pacific falls; the trade winds blow from the cooler east side towards the trough, pushing warm surface water westwards towards the bordering land masses. As the water-laden air is driven over the land it cools and drops its load. In June last year the bureau of meteorology issued a warning that La Niña was about “to dump buckets” on Australia. In 1989-90 La Niña brought flooding to New South Wales and Victoria, in 1998 to New South Wales and Queensland. Dr Andrew Watkins, manager of the bureau’s climate prediction services, told the assembled media: “Computer model forecasts show a significant likelihood of a La Niña in 2010.” In Brisbane the benchmark was the flood of 1974; most Queenslanders are unaware that the worst flood in Brisbane’s history happened in 1893. Six months ago the meteorologists thought it was worthwhile to warn people to “get ready for a wet, late winter and a soaked spring and summer”. So what did the people do? Nothing. They said, “She’ll be right, mate”. She wasn’t. It takes La Niña to bring rain to the inland, in such quantities that it can hardly be managed. Manage it Australians must. The Wivenhoe Dam on the Brisbane river was built to protect the city of Brisbane from another flood like the one of 1974. For years it has been at 10% of capacity, so when it filled this year nobody wanted to let any of the precious water out. It eventually became clear that the dam had filled to 190% of its capacity, and the authorities realised with sinking hearts not only that the floodgates would have to be opened, but that the opening would coincide with a king tide in Moreton Bay. The question nobody has been heard to ask is whether or not the level of water in the dam should have been reduced gradually, beginning weeks ago. The mayor of Brisbane, aware that a disaster was about to occur on his watch, made a hysterical attack on the opponents of dam building, but what the succeeding events prove is that dams are no substitute for a coherent water strategy. The phenomenon is anything but momentary; the not-so-exceptional rainfall will continue, probably until the end of March. Professor Neville Nicholls, president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, believes that “the Queensland floods are caused by what is one of the strongest (if not the strongest) La Niña events since our records began in the late 19th century”. …
God bless Germaine. She is Australia's most successful export. There is nothing better than having an Australian lecturing the English on their language. The magic of being expert in English Literature means you become expert in meteorology, hydrology and agriculture.
Germaine's numbers on dam levels and criticism on how they were managed are inaccurate. Not only this – Wivanhoe was not built to withstand floods of this proportion. The aim of the dam is to help mitigate floods – which was successfully done. A better job could have been done – with hindsight, but isn't that always the case. It would be prudent to wait for more detailed information on the occurences during this event, rather than traducing hard working people doing their best in a difficult and unprecedented situation. Shame Germaine shame. If she has strong moral fibre she will retract her claims.