Traditional Kenya weather forecasts fail with rapidly changing climate

By Abjata Khalif
3 February 2012 MARSABIT – Nomadic communities living off the dry terrain of northern Kenya have relied for generations on the powers of village elders to predict the weather. But the divinations of traditional forecasters were confounded by an unexpectedly severe drought in 2011, threatening herders’ livelihoods. Now pastoralists and meteorological experts are trying to find better ways to cope with regional weather that is increasingly difficult to anticipate – a situation some believe is linked to climate change. Herders in Marsabit district use traditional weather forecasting systems linked to the seasons and the calendar. These include phenology (the study of plant and animal life cycles), animal behaviours, astrology, studying animal entrails and divining. Elders detect changes in temperature and humidity from a tree locally known as the marer. They observe the migratory patterns of species of birds, and trace the progress of stars in the sky or look for the presence of particular stars in constellations. In the belief system of the Marsabit communities, all this information can be used to forecast particular weather events such as long or short periods of rainfall, flash flooding, dry spells, or cold weather that could cause illness in people and livestock. The level of pasture in the region can also be foretold on this basis. When the elders predict a dry spell, herders may move to other areas with more water and pasture, or even cross the border into Ethiopia, to return once the situation has improved. They may sell their goats, sheep and cattle and buy camels, which are better able to withstand drought. Others slaughter their older cattle and preserve the meat to use as food during the dry period. Using their traditional forecasting systems, the elders in Marsabit district predicted that rains would fail in the area from October or November 2010 until April 2011, but that after this dry spell the situation would return to normal. This information was relayed to the community through the network of traditional elders in every village in the district. As anticipated, there were only erratic rains towards the end of 2010, and then a dry period. But the onset of rain predicted for April never occurred, and the situation rapidly turned catastrophic. With livestock weakened, pasture diminished and the water running dry for people and livestock, thousands of herders crossed into southern Ethiopia in search of water and pasture, while others fled remote villages for towns in search of food and pasture. Abdi Boru, from the Turbi area of Marsabit, said he lost 23 head of cattle in the drought, leaving him with just two. “The situation changed to worse from (what the elders) predicted and everybody started losing livestock in high numbers. We could not move them across the border as they were weak, and we watched while they died,” said Boru. When rains finally came in November 2011, they were so heavy that there was flash flooding, which the traditional forecasters also failed to predict. Kunu Halakano, an elder in Dambalfanchana village, said he was shocked by the turn of events. “We have given our community weather information for many years, and that assisted them in understanding what to expect and plan, but now I am seeing something else from what we predicted. We predicted good rains after the dry spell and (yet) the rains failed from April to October,” said Halakano. The forecaster blamed the failure of the traditional predictions on powers beyond the elders’ knowledge and systems. Elders have met repeatedly to discuss what happened, and some say the problem lay with insufficient attention to signs in the natural world. […]