Predicted surface winds (colors) of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth at 6Z (2 am EDT) Thursday, 25 April 2019, from the 12Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Kenneth would be approaching landfall in northern Mozambique, south of Palma (population 52,000) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Graphic: tropicaltidbits.com
Predicted surface winds (colors) of Tropical Cyclone Kenneth at 6Z (2 am EDT) Thursday, 25 April 2019, from the 12Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model. The model predicted that Kenneth would be approaching landfall in northern Mozambique, south of Palma (population 52,000) as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds. Graphic: tropicaltidbits.com

By Dr. Jeff Masters
23 April 2019

(Weather Underground) – Five weeks after catastrophic Tropical Cyclone Idai brought Mozambique its greatest natural disaster in history—with over 600 killed and damages in excess of $1 billion—a new tropical cyclone, Kenneth, threatens the nation.

As of the 10 am EDT Tuesday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Kenneth was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, headed west-southwest at 12 mph. The agency issuing the official forecasts for the South Indian Ocean, RSMC-La Reunion, had Kenneth as a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds and a central pressure of 998 mb at 8 am EDT Tuesday. Kenneth was under moderate wind shear of 10 – 15 knots, over warm waters with sea surface temperatures of 30°C (86°F), and had excellent upper-level outflow—conditions very favorable for strengthening.

Both the JTWC and RSMC-La Reunion predict that Kenneth to intensify significantly over the next couple of days. The 10 am EDT Tuesday JTWC forecast called for Kenneth to peak as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds at 0Z Thursday, when the storm will be battering the Comoros Islands. If Kenneth enters a period of rapid intensification, which JTWC has flagged as a possibility, it could become even stronger. [more]

Kenneth Threatens to Bring Extreme Rains to Cyclone-Ravaged Mozambique