Decline of another 30 feet will trigger federal shortage declaration Lake Mead's high water mark dwarfs a passing sailboat in a photo taken March 25. Already down more than 100 feet since 2000, the surface of the reservoir is projected to drop 13 feet by July to its lowest level since April 1965. Photo by John Gurzinski.

By HENRY BREAN Another below-average year on the Colorado River will soon shrink Lake Mead to a level not seen since President Lyndon Johnson unveiled his "Great Society" and the Beatles bared their "Rubber Soul." By next month, the surface of the lake is expected to sink below 1,100 feet above sea level for the first time since May 1965, according to the latest projections from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. And the decline won’t stop there. By July, the reservoir on the Nevada-Arizona border is projected to shrink more than 13 feet from its current level of 1,105 feet above sea level. That’s more than 8 feet lower than forecasters were predicting just one month ago. The news has water managers and marina operators scrambling to deal with the immediate effects and bracing for what could come next if drought conditions don’t improve along the Colorado River. "We have to hope we have a decent spring. Otherwise we’re headed for uncharted territory," said J.C. Davis, spokesman for the Southern Nevada Water Authority. … The culprit this time is an ongoing drought that has delivered below average snowfall to the Rocky Mountains and below average snowmelt to the Colorado River during eight of the past 10 years. In four of the past eight years, the river has received little more than half of its normal runoff. In 2004, the inflow was 45 percent of average. In 2002, it was 30 percent of average, marking the river’s driest year in a century.  … The trouble is, even in an average year, less water flows into Lake Mead than flows out through Hoover Dam to fill water orders in California, Arizona and Mexico. And after almost a decade of deep drought, the only way to refill Mead and Powell is with several years of near-record runoff. …

DROUGHT LINGERS: Lake sinking near 1965 level