Arctic sea ice death spiral
I interviewed by email Dr. Mark Serreze, recently named director of The National Snow and Ice Data Center. Partly I wanted him to explain his “death spiral” metaphor for Arctic ice (see NSIDC: Arctic melt passes the point of no return, “We hate to say we told you so, but we did”). … CP: You have used the term “death spiral” to describe the loss of Arctic ice — I’d be interested if you had any further comments or elaboration on what is happening in the Arctic and what you think its implications are for humankind. Serreze: The downward trend in September sea ice extent seems to be accelerating. That reflects the combination of three things: 1. Spring is increasingly dominated by thin, first-year ice prone to melting out in summer;
2. As the thin ice now starts to melt out earlier in summer, the albedo feedback is stronger meaning even more summer melt;
3. Arctic is warming in all seasons, meaning that recovery through a series of cold years is becoming less and les likely. Take these three together, and you are probably looking at ice-fee summers by 2030. I’d call that a death spiral. …
