An old jack pine forest on Seagull Lake at the end of the Gunflint Trail in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. Jack pine is on the decline in Minnesota. It needs fire to release its seeds. But summers in the BWCAW have been too humid and wet for fire. (Photo Courtesy of Lee Frelich)By Madeleine Baran, Minnesota Public Radio
September 15, 2009 St. Paul, Minn. — A new article by University of Minnesota ecologists says Minnesota’s forests could shrink more rapidly than expected, as droughts, fires, and growth of native and exotic species accelerate the changes caused by global warming. The authors argue that prairie lands could expand by as much as 300 miles in the next 50 to 100 years, pushing Minnesota’s forests further north. The changes would significantly alter the state’s landscape, and could impact industry and development. “We should be alarmed at the rate of change,” Lee Frelich, the director of the University’s Center for Hardwood Ecology and the article’s co-author, told Minnesota Public Radio News on Monday. Frelich said that although forest and prairie lands have shifted in the past, those changes occurred over a longer period of time. “We’re causing an extraordinarily rapid rate of climate change, maybe at a rate faster than that at which the forest can respond,” Frelich said. “And so maybe we’ll see large areas of forests just simply die because they won’t be able to move north that fast.” Droughts, fires, and windstorms caused by global warming could kill older trees, and contribute to what the article calls “a savannification” of the forest, the article argues. “Trees live a long time,” Frelich said. “They cannot change as fast as something like birds that can just fly a little further to the north in a few hours time. Trees can’t do that, and so they need a longer time to adapt.” …

New study makes dire prediction for Minnesota forests