Australia greenhouse emissions set new seven-year highs on natural gas boom – “Australia is on a collision course with climate catastrophe”

Percentage change in Australia carbon emissions, by sector, since year to March 1990. Graphic: Department of the Environment and Energy

By Peter Hannam
30 August 2019

(The Sydney Morning Herald) – Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions have risen to the highest annual rate since the 2012-13 financial year, driven higher by surging gas production that has made the country the world’s biggest exporter of the fossil fuel.

Greenhouse gas figures [pdf] for the March quarter of 2019, released by the Morrison government on Friday, show emissions rose 0.6 per cent on the previous 12 months to 538.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent.

Emissions related to LNG exports jumped 18.8 per cent, eclipsing a drop from the electricity sector as renewable energy’s 28 per cent leap curbed coal- and gas-fired power output. Carbon pollution from electricity generation eased 2.1 per cent from a year earlier.

Australia carbon dioxide emissions, by quarter, March 2009 to March 2019. Graphic: Department of the Environment and Energy

Transport also continued to grow as a source of greenhouse gases, rising 1.3 per cent as diesel use rose.

The government focused on a seasonal drop in emissions of 0.4 per cent compared with the final quarter of 2018.

It also sought to highlight that annual emissions remain 14 per cent below the peak recorded in the final year of the Howard government, and that on a per capita basis, emissions are about 40 per cent less than in 1990. […]

Australia natural gas and LNG production, 1990-2018. Data: Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (2019), Resources and Energy Quarterly, June 2019. Graphic: Department of the Environment and Energy

The latest data show the electricity sector used 23.1 per cent less gas in the year to March, while brown-coal consumption eased back 0.7 per cent.

Overall, though, gas use has been the main reason for the recent rise in annual greenhouse emissions. The liquified natural gas boom has propelled Australia past Qatar as the world’s biggest exporter in the December.

Emissions from the gas sector contribute to the overall total on several counts. Fugitive emissions, for instance, rose 5.9 per cent in the year to March 2019 to 59.6 million tonnes of CO2-e, with gas a major source.

Stationary energy use excluding the electricity sector – which takes in the processing of gas for export – also rose at an annual rate of more than 5 per cent for the year to March. This segment topped 103.8 million tonnes of CO2-e, trialling only the power sector emissions – at 178.5 million tonnes of CO2-e – among all emission sources.

Agriculture was the other main sector to report a drop in annual emissions, easing 4.8 per cent to 68.6 million tonnes of CO2-e.

Changes in land use, which includes deforestation, contributed less of a carbon sink in the past year but were still calculated as a 19.4 million tonnes of C02 reduction to the total.

Carbon dioxide emissions from Australia’s natural gas production system, financial years, 1990-2018. Graphic: Department of the Environment and Energy

The Australia Institute and other non-government groups doubt the veracity of the land use figures, however, as they have largely failed to pick up a big increase in land clearing in Queensland in recent years and more lately in NSW. […]

Adam Bandt, the Greens’ climate spokesman said, the warming projections showed “Australia is on a collision course with climate catastrophe”.

“The only way to get our pollution under control, meet our international obligations under the Paris agreement and avoid a climate catastrophe is to urgently begin the phase out of coal and gas,” Mr Bandt said. [more]

Australia’s greenhouse emissions set new seven-year highs on gas boom

Australia’s domestic and exported carbon emissions as share of global emissions, projected to 2030. The percentage of global emissions prior to 2017 are historical and with respect to global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in each year as estimated by the Global Carbon Project. After 2017 emissions are based on domestic and export projections as described in the report and are expressed with respect to a global CO2 emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit as reported in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. This emissions pathway indicates a range of 40-59 percent, with a median point of 45 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels. In addition to CO2 combustion emissions, fugitive CO2 and methane (CH4) emissions related to fossil fuel production and use in Australia are included. Graphic: ACF — Australia’s domestic and exported carbon emissions as share of global emissions, projected to 2030. The percentage of global emissions prior to 2017 are historical and with respect to global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in each year as estimated by the Global Carbon Project. After 2017 emissions are based on domestic and export projections as described in the report and are expressed with respect to a global CO₂ emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit as reported in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. This emissions pathway indicates a range of 40-59 percent, with a median point of 45 percent reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels. In addition to CO2 combustion emissions, fugitive CO₂ and methane (CH₄) emissions related to fossil fuel production and use in Australia are included. Graphic: ACF

Australia on track to become one of the world’s major climate polluters

8 July 2019 (ACF) — If government and industry projections for fossil fuel expansions are realised, and if the rest of the world adopts policies consistent with the Paris Agreement, Australia could be responsible for up to 17 per cent of global emissions by 2030, according to new research. [pdf]

When emissions from Australia’s current coal, oil and gas exports (3.6 per cent of global total) are added to domestic emissions (1.4 per cent of global total), Australia’s contribution to the global climate pollution footprint is already about 5 per cent, the research by Berlin-based science and policy institute Climate Analytics finds.

Australia’s CO2 emissions from domestic coal, oil and gas projected to 2030. Data: Climate Analytics’ calculations based on nationally reported quantities of fuels consumed domestically and exported, and national inventory emissions factors. Projections based on Climate Analytics’ assessment of national projections as described in the report. Graphic: ACF — Australia’s CO₂ emissions from domestic coal, oil and gas projected to 2030. Data: Climate Analytics’ calculations based on nationally reported quantities of fuels consumed domestically and exported, and national inventory emissions factors. Projections based on Climate Analytics’ assessment of national projections as described in the report. Graphic: ACF

“This report confirms Australia is on track to become one of the world’s worst contributors to climate damage,” said the Australian Conservation Foundation’s Climate Change & Clean Energy program manager, Gavan McFadzean.

“Burning coal and gas is the number one cause of the climate crisis and Australia is now the number one exporter of both, with quantities projected to increase dramatically in coming years.

Australia’s domestic and exported coal emissions as share of global emissions. Data: Climate Analytics’ calculations based on nationally reported quantities of coal consumed domestically and exported, national inventory emissions factors, and global CO2 estimates from the Global Carbon Project. Climate Analytics’ estimates of fugitive CO2 emissions are also included. Graphic: ACF — Australia’s domestic and exported coal emissions as share of global emissions. Data: Climate Analytics’ calculations based on nationally reported quantities of coal consumed domestically and exported, national inventory emissions factors, and global CO₂ estimates from the Global Carbon Project. Climate Analytics’ estimates of fugitive CO₂ emissions are also included. Graphic: ACF

“When we add Australia’s exported emissions to our domestic emissions, Australia rockets to equal fifth on the list of major global climate polluters, alongside Russia and behind only India, the European Union, the USA and China.

“With planned coal and gas expansions, Australia could account for up to 17 per cent of global emissions by 2030, with Australian coal responsible for 12 per cent of global emissions by then.

Australia’s projected domestic and exported coal emissions as share of global emissions. The percentage of global emissions prior to 2017 are historical and with respect to global CO2 as estimated by the Global Carbon Project. After 2017 emissions are based on domestic and export projections as described in the report and are expressed with respect to the middle point in a global CO2 emissions pathway range consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit as reported in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. The middle point is a 45 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels. Graphic: ACF — Australia’s projected domestic and exported coal emissions as share of global emissions. The percentage of global emissions prior to 2017 are historical and with respect to global CO₂ as estimated by the Global Carbon Project. After 2017 emissions are based on domestic and export projections as described in the report and are expressed with respect to the middle point in a global CO₂ emissions pathway range consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit as reported in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. The middle point is a 45 percent reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels. Graphic: ACF

“If Adani’s mine and all the other coal mines proposed for the region reach full production by 2030, the Galilee Basin on its own could account for up to 5.45 per cent of global climate pollution in 2030.

“Liquified natural gas is also a large and growing pollution problem, with Australia on track to become the world’s biggest LNG exporter, producing around a fifth of the world’s LNG.

“Based on government and industry projections, Australia’s domestic and exported gas emissions could account for up to 3.4 per cent of global climate pollution by 2030.

Australia’s projected domestic and exported gas emissions as share of global fossil fuel emissions. The percentage of global emissions prior to 2017 are historical and with respect to global CO2 as estimated by the Global Carbon Project. After 2017 emissions are based on domestic and export projections as described in the report and are expressed with respect to a global CO2 emissions pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5o C limit as reported in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5o C, involving a 45% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2010 levels. Graphic: ACF

“Australia’s planned fossil fuel expansions contradict global efforts to address climate change and are completely inconsistent with the global energy transition that is needed to meet the critical Paris Agreement goals of keeping global warming under a 2°C threshold and pursuing efforts to avoid passing a 1.5°C threshold.

“Instead of encouraging new fossil fuel projects, a responsible Federal Government would recognise that most of Australia’s fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground and would facilitate the necessary rapid transition to clean, renewable energy, while working actively to support communities that will be affected by this transition.”

Read Climate Analytics’ report, Evaluating the significance of Australia’s global fossil fuel carbon footprint