Karakoram's Hunza and Lady Finger peaks. Unlike the rest of the Himalayas, which are losing mass, the Karakoram glaciers seem to be holding steady or even gaining ice, finds a new study. Takayuki Hayato / Shutterstock

By Becky Oskin, LiveScience Contributor
12 September 2012 Many politically unstable areas of South Asia are “water-stressed,” meaning the areas are facing water scarcity due to poor infrastructure or simply lacking enough water to meet demand.
 
The potential impacts of climate change on water scarcity could further inflame political tensions, finds a new report, Himalayan Glaciers: Climate Change, Water Resources, and Water Security, released today (Sept. 12) by the National Research Council (NRC). Funding was provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. The report examines how changes to Himalayan glaciers could affect the area’s river systems, water supplies and population. The region’s glaciers cross eight countries and are the source of drinking water, irrigation and hydroelectric power for roughly 1.5 billion people. Water will become an even more precious commodity in regions that are already water-stressed from both social changes and environmental factors. Climate change could exacerbate this stress in the future, writes the committee who prepared the report. Therefore, changes in water supplies could play an increasing role in political tensions, especially if existing water-management institutions do not evolve to take better account of the region’s social, economic and ecological complexities, the committee said. The Himalayas span 1,200 miles (2,000 kilometers). The largest glaciers are in the west (northern Pakistan and India); they are fed by winter snow and exhibit different characteristics than glaciers in the central (Nepal) and eastern Himalayas (Bhutan), said Bodo Bookhagen, an expert on Himalayan glaciers and professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara. In the latter regions, the glaciers grow via monsoon-fed snows during the summer. That’s why increasing temperatures that shift precipitation from snow to rain may shrink these ice fields. [High and Dry: Images of the Himalayas] Glaciers in the eastern and central part of Himalayas are retreating at rates similar to those in other parts of the world, scientists summarize in the NRC report. The good news is this region gets most of its water through monsoonal rainfall, not glacial runoff. As such, melting glaciers are unlikely to cause significant changes in water availability for people living at lower elevations, the committee said. Shortages are more likely to come from overuse of groundwater resources, population growth and shifts in water-use patterns, the report concludes. “Societal changes will be at least as important as changes in glacial flows,” said Henry Vaux, committee chair and professor emeritus of resource economics at the University of California, Berkeley. […]

Melting Himalayas May Magnify Water Scarcity