The Peak Oil Crisis: The Summer of 2012
By Tom Whipple
11 July 2012 One has to go back to the 1930’s to find a time when so much of civilization was in turmoil at once. The 30’s ended with World War II, tens of millions dead, and much of the industrialized world in ruins. It is not hard to argue that the array of economic, geopolitical, and climatological problems currently facing the world add up to an even more serious threat than a handful of hyper-aggressive nation-states did 75 years ago. Our current problems – faltering economies, an out-of-control atmosphere, increasing social unrest, and political gridlock in many parts of the world – add up to a very bleak outlook ahead. Here in America, there is much denial. With weathermen telling of new disasters every day, the annual budget deficit stuck at $1.5 trillion, unemployment increasing every week and not even a hint of rational solutions to these problems anywhere in sight, we are moving towards the November elections in a dead heat. As the Rockies burn, the corn-belt fries, the east coast melts, and the southwest broils, we continue to pump out greenhouse gases as the only way to keep ourselves employed and our economies growing. Our media continues to craft stories telling us that the weather has been bad before and that there is still no “firm” evidence that the aberrant weather is caused by the burning of fossil fuels. In Europe and Asia, things are not much better. This summer Europe is having floods instead of drought, but that won’t last long and in another year or so their crops will be frying too. A growing number of Europeans are starting to realize that perhaps the new Union has gotten itself into such a big mess that conjuring up loans for bankrupt governments and financial institutions isn’t much of a solution. Getting 27 countries to agree on real political union and accepting the debts of others is unlikely to be doable in the time required. Japan’s economy seems to be tanking and China seems headed for a bout of deflation as there will soon be few trading partners left to buy their prodigious output of stuff in ever increasing amounts. […] So where does our oil crisis fit into all of this? First, ignore the stories that have been filling the media of late as to how there is no longer an American energy crisis. The stories say that the genius of American industry has figured out how to frack so much oil and gas out of North Dakota and other shale deposits that the US will soon be energy independent and exporting the stuff all over the world. Needless to say, numerous people who understand the numbers have torn this cornucopian drivel to shreds as most of these stories ignore or gloss over the 3 or 4 million b/d of new production that must found each year to offset the declines from existing fields amongst other fallacious logic. […] At some point, and that day is not far away, it will be recognized that the economic growth as we have come to know it in recent years is no longer possible and the search for other lifestyles will begin in earnest. Some may even come to understand that the peak oil crisis may already be all around us and we are simply not recognizing it for what it is.
Very interesting stuff. It's one thing to spot the problems, but it's quite another to guide humanity away from them, or through them. I can't wait to see what happens, I only hope I survive it along with most others.