Ten existential threats to global agriculture
By Steve Savage
27 June 2011
I tend to be a “glass half full” sort of person, particularly about the prospects of successfully feeding the 9-10 billion people we expect by 2050. My optimism is based on daily contact with the innovative public and private entities who develop technology for agriculture. It is also based on the track record of small and large farmers who integrate these new options into their production systems. Farming has the largest physical “footprint” of any human enterprise, so it will never be without consequences. I believe that feeding 10 billion people well while preserving the environment in within the realm of possibility. Even so, I have some concerns about how we are going to pull this off. My list of existential threats includes:
- Rising energy costs
- Peak Phosphorus
- An aging workforce
- Our lack of a viable and humane guest worker program
- The low level of land ownership by farmers
- Climate change
- Competition for water
- Pest resistance to chemicals and genetic traits
- A failure to invest public funds in agricultural research
- The growing influence of anti-science forces
- Rising uncertainty about private investment in agricultural research
Rising energy costs After labor, land, and often water, the next largest cost of most farming operations is energy. It takes fuel to drive tractors and combines. It takes energy to manufacture and transport fertilizers. It takes energy to heat, light or cool greenhouses, and it takes energy to chill, store and transport food. As we move into an era of “peak oil,” it becomes difficult to simply pass along these rising costs to consumers – particularly to the poor. The solutions are the use of waste heat and the use of LED lighting at only the wavelengths needed for plant growth. Peak Phosphorus Phosphorus is the second most important element for plant growth. It has been mined from deposits of “phosphorus rock” and released with acid to make commercial fertilizer. Those mines are running out and soon the only major source will be in North Africa. That is not a good scenario. Phosphorus is soluble in water, so some of it moves into ground water and into streams and rivers. It is as much a driver of the Gulf “dead zone” as is nitrogen. We can reclaim phosphorus in rivers and particularly in from municipal waste, but the process is expensive. We need to drive down that cost and start re-using all this fertilizer we are currently wasting. […]
10 Existential Threats to Global Agriculture via The Oil Drum
Add to this list:
The disinterest of the young.
By the time the next generation actually wakes up and gets involved, they will have far, far less to work with.
In a world of constant decline, there is a point of no-return, where we won't have the means (resources, money, human interest and activism) to resolve anything. We are factually already there now.
So I would change this from "the disinterest of the young" to "the destruction of all future generations".
It is already evident what is going to happen to humanity. Our annihilation is self-evident.