Study says Navy must adapt to climate change

By JOHN M. BRODER
March 10, 2011 A report commissioned by the United States Navy concludes that climate change will pose profound challenges for the sea service in coming decades, including a need to secure Arctic shipping lanes, prepare for more frequent humanitarian missions and protect coastal installations from rising seas. The 15-month study, conducted by the National Research Council, accepts the scientific consensus that the climate is changing and that the effects are being felt now. Of particular consequence to American naval forces – the Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard – are the melting polar ice cap, rising seas and increasingly frequent severe storms and droughts that could lead to famine, mass migration and political instability. The report from research council, an arm of the National Academy of Sciences, builds on previous work by the Pentagon, State Department, the intelligence community and independent research groups that have concluded that climate change is a “threat multiplier” that adds new and unpredictable dangers to global physical and political stability. The primary authors are Frank L. Bowman, a retired Navy admiral who led the service’s nuclear propulsion unit, and Antonio J. Busalacchi, Jr., a climatologist and director of the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center at the University of Maryland, College Park. They were assisted by a large number of climate and oceanography experts as well as corporate planners and active-duty military officers. The group found that the precise impacts of climate change are impossible to predict, but that actions should be undertaken now to prepare for a range of outcomes. It also found that some impacts are already observable, including melting sea ice in the Arctic and rising sea levels, and require planning and action by naval forces. “Even the most moderate predicted trends in climate change will present new national security challenges for the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard,” Mr. Bowman said. “Naval forces need to monitor more closely and start preparing now for projected challenges climate change will present in the future.” Summer sea ice is retreating at an estimated rate of 10 percent a decade, and Arctic Ocean sea lanes could be open as early as the summer of 2030, the report found. Shipping, oil and gas operations and other activities in the region will require an increased naval presence in the region, new equipment such as icebreakers and increased cold-weather training, the authors write. The report also concludes that the military should also be prepared for large-scale and frequent missions to help people displaced by major storms or drought. The Navy should consider beefing up its small complement of hospital ships, perhaps by contracting with private companies to provide extra capability in emergencies, it said. What is more, major naval installations along the coasts are vulnerable to rising seas and storm surges, and plans should be made to relocate some critical facilities inland, the report contends, estimating that $100 billion of Navy installations would be at risk of sea level rise of one meter or more. “Although the future degree and magnitude of climate change on regional scales is uncertain, it’s clear that the potential for environmental disasters is on the rise due to the changing nature of the hydrologic cycle and sea level,” Mr. Busalacchi said. “Naval forces must be prepared to provide more aid and disaster relief in the decades ahead.” …

Study Says Navy Must Adapt to Climate Change