Drought and heat wave hit agriculture in Europe
By TERENCE ROTH in London and WILLIAM MAULDIN in Moscow
AUGUST 3, 2010, 9:12 A.M. ET The scorching temperatures and dry skies threatening Russia’s wheat harvests have also been beating down on Western Europe, which is forecasting lower output of crops from French wheat to Italian tomatoes. Russia’s Agriculture Ministry Tuesday cut its forecast for the country’s 2010 grain output to between 70 million and 75 million metric tons, down from earlier estimates of as much as 90 million tons. Weather forecasts don’t see any imminent relief from record Russian temperatures of up to 40 degrees Celsius or 104 degrees Fahrenheit. The weather has aided wildfires that so far have claimed 40 lives, authorities say. Western Europeans also expect their own markedly dry summer to cut a swathe through the production of grain, fruit and vegetables this year. Economists forecast a boost in seasonal food prices, with the German government reporting a 12% to 15% rise in July. Ben Lloyd-Hughes, a climate scientist at the University of Reading’s Walker Institute, in England, says pockets of Western Europe also are being affected by drought, but that Southwest Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are hardest hit. “It is the lowest rainfall and the highest temperatures that the area has seen in the last 30 years or more,” he said. ” Droughts at this time of year in that region tend to reinforce themselves because the soil dries out, which subsequently makes the drought worse. The weather forecast for the next week is for more sun.” Russia’s expected wheat shortfall has sent world prices of the grain soaring. France, Western Europe’s biggest wheat producer, also could take a big hit. “There were some problems of drought in June, but not nearly as serious as what we are seeing in Russia,” said Michel Potier of Agritel, a company that gauges price risk in agriculture. “We estimate a 10% fall in the French soft wheat harvest compared to last year, but don’t forget that last year was a very strong harvest.” The impact on foodstuffs stretches beyond grain. An Italian farmers association expects Italy’s tomato crop to be 10% to 15% short this year because of intense heat. Dutch growers of tulip bulbs could see production fall by as much as 20%, according to one forecast, and Belgian potato growers expect a drop in yields. German brewers are likely to face stiffer barley prices, with output of the key beer ingredient expected to drop by as much as 20%, according to agriculture consultants Alfred C. Toepfer International. Corn output also could drop 15%. Polish orchards expect this year’s fruit harvest to be down by nearly a fifth from 2009, with cereals and vegetables forecast to fall off by 10%. …
