Extreme weather events will increase for several decades, even if carbon emissions are curbed

By Jessica Shankleman, BusinessGreen
17 Jun 2010 British businesses need to invest in adaptation measures to cope with flooding and drought in the coming decades even if substantial reductions in greenhouses gas emissions are achieved. That is the stark warning from the insurance industry today after a new report from the Met Office warned that global water cycles will continue to be disrupted in the coming decades even if average temperatures stabilise and begin to decrease. The research will further fuel calls for urgent cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, but will also put pressure on businesses to accelerate the roll out of climate adaptation measures. “The debate surrounds aspects of climate change, but there are indisputable facts that weather patterns are changing,” said Malcolm Tarling, spokesman for the Association of British Insurers (ABI). “Despite everything we do now [to cut greenhouse gas emissions], climate change is already in the system so we need to make the right steps to reduce the risks going forward.” He added that there is a compelling case for governments and businesses to invest in adaptation measures, such as improved flood defences and more heat resilient buildings. “We believe that adaptation is very cost effective, especially in terms of assets,” he said. Previous estimates from ABI suggest that flood defence expenditure in the UK has a cost-benefit ratio of 7:1, much higher than for other public sector capital investments. The Met Office research reiterates warnings from climate scientists that it could take several decades for cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to begin to reverse the long-term upward trend in average global temperatures. It also predicted that an increased incidence of intense rainfall and other extreme weather events could continue for several decades even if atmospheric temperatures begin to fall, as heat trapped in the ocean will fuel a high level of evaporation, leading to disrupted weather patterns and increasingly frequent floods and droughts. “The details of rainfall changes differ in different climate models, but the similar principles apply,” the report stated. “This gives us confidence that the changes in some rainfall patterns… we start to see as temperatures increase would continue to intensify for a period (perhaps a few decades) despite temperatures starting to recover from peak warming.”

Met Office warns of long-term extreme weather risks