Illustration: Ron Tandberg By ADAM MORTON
December 5, 2009 THE world has little chance of avoiding at least two degrees of global warming this century – the projected threshold for unpredictable and accelerated climate changes – if the emissions targets proposed by rich nations are locked in at next week’s Copenhagen summit, an analysis has found. A report by German-based consultants Climate Analytics says wealthy countries will arrive in Denmark with proposals that would lead to a joint cut in greenhouse gas emissions of between 13 and 20 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Australia’s contribution is a 5 to 25 per cent cut, with the final figure dependent on the level of international agreement reached. The industrialised world target is well below the 25 to 40 per cent range that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found would be necessary for a 50/50 chance of keeping the temperature rise near two degrees. Factor in climate policies proposed by major developing nations, including China, and global emissions could increase 35 per cent between 1990 and 2020 – a rise that is said to lock in the inundation of island countries such as Tuvalu, the Maldives and Kiribati. …

Warming rescue plan doomed, report warns

Greenhouse targets won’t stop dangers, report warns
MARIAN WILKINSON AND BEN CUBBY
December 5, 2009 TWO days before the UN climate conference opens in Copenhagen, the targets for greenhouse gas cuts put forward by individual countries are unlikely to meet the aim of avoiding dangerous climate change, a report has found. The current pledges from both the rich and developing nations would see global temperatures still rising by 3 degrees or more, with huge environmental and economic consequences, said John Connor, the chief executive of the Climate Institute, which commissioned the report. ”What this research really shows is that we’re already in the tipping point, between now and 2020, in terms of emissions cuts,” Mr Connor said. ”If you look beyond 2020 then, on the current targets, it’s going to be practically impossible to reel emissions back in.” …

Greenhouse targets won’t stop dangers, report warns