Graph of the Day: Rainfall Deficits in East Africa, November 2009

Due to the current El Niño event, above‐average rainfall was forecast for the areas of East Africa that receive October to December rains. These rains were expected to contribute to a reduction in the high to extreme levels of food insecurity that have affected many parts of the region following several consecutive failed rainy seasons. However, while October rainfall was above normal and generated some moderate improvements in pastoral conditions, little rain fell during November in pastoral and southeastern marginal cropping areas of Kenya; southern and southeastern pastoral areas of Ethiopia; and northern pastoral and central rainfed cropping areas of Somalia (Figure 1). This extended dry spell raises serious concerns about the prospects for recovery in pastoral areas and the performance of the short‐rains harvest. The performance of the December rains will be critical to food security outcomes in the region over the coming months, though even with average rains, food security conditions are expected to be poorer than initially forecast. In pastoral areas, abundant precipitation during October across most of the region led to modest improvements in pasture and browse, increased water availability, and reduced trekking distances between water points. These improvements were curtailed by several weeks of dry conditions during November, which have reduced available drinking water and retarded pasture regeneration, causing early outmigration among pastoralists in some areas. The most affected pastoral areas include the northwestern districts of Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, and Marsabit and the southeastern districts of Narok and Kajiado in Kenya; parts of Degahabour, Warder, Korahe, Afder, and Liben zones of Somali region and Borena zone of Oromia region in Ethiopia; and the northern pastoral and agropastoral areas of the northwest, and agropastoral areas of Hiran and Bakool in Somalia.

East Africa Food Security Alert, December 10, 2009: November rainfall deficits raise concerns in parts of East Africa [pdf]