Research paints bleak picture of climate change's effect on wildland fires, air quality

By BRETT FRENCH
The Billings Gazette As the climate warms over the next four decades, portions of Wyoming and Montana are at ground zero for larger areas burned by wildland fires and an increase in air pollution from those fires. The forecasts come from a recently released study done for the Environmental Protection Agency by Harvard’s School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. It was published in the June 18 issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research. The study used a moderate warming scenario of about 3 degrees by 2050 to arrive at its conclusions. “The EPA wanted this information as one more indicator of what happens in the future,” said Jennifer Logan, a senior research fellow at the Harvard school. “It’s another indicator of what happens with climate warming.” Graphics accompanying the research show areas of Wyoming and Montana facing up to a 200 percent increase in wildfire areas burned and an 80 percent increase in organic carbon aerosols — air pollution from fires. Based on yearly temperature and precipitation, the fires and air pollution would vary. But overall, the researchers found an upward trend. “These are unexplored effects of climate change,” said Loretta Mickley, a research associate at the Harvard school who focuses on climate change and smog. …